Roundtable is go.  

Two words for you : Chris Needham

Two more words: Basil Tsi….Sim… uhhh Basil Rocks!

We discuss what we think the worst move of the year was for the Nats, do Randy St. Clare and/or Manny Acta get free passes, and Bowden : Should he stay or should he go?

Jesus Flores (primary age next year: 24)  Sept/Oct :   .400 / .400 / .600 (5 at bats)   Season: .256 /.296 /.402

Jesus injured himself a day into September and luckily never saw the field after that, despite warning shots fired by the Nats medical staff that he could be ok to play which would have certainly doomed him to offseason surgery or at the very least, Lupus. 

It was so/so season for Jesus.   After circumstances reversed his demotion to the minors, he hit well, but as the year went on it got worse and worse, culminating witha .181 / .198 / .253  August.   Wear and tear, or pitchers learning how to deal with Jesus?   He remains the catcher of the future but the question is : is it the immeidate future, or the long-term future?  Catchers are usually brought along a little slower so next year is not make or break for Flores.   But a 2009 like 2008 and the Nats have to start looking at a back-up plan going foward.  

Emilio Bonaficio (24) Sept/Oct :   .218 / .308 / .291    Season: .248 / .305 / .344

Some people call him the Streak.  Not just because he’s fast, but he tends to put together runs of good hitting for a week or so, in between long stretches of cringe worthy at bats.   Overall the result is not good.  In fact, it was bad enough at the seasons end to cost him some precious at bats.  September might have been a preview of next season with Emilio fighting for a spot but losing it at the plate.  

Emilio can run.  Emilio can field.  Can Emilio hit?   That’s the question for next year.  Chances are he’ll likely start, but the Nats offense isn’t one that can hang onto an empty hitter.  If by mid-May Emilio is hitting under the Mendoza line, we’re likely looking at a new starter by months end. 

Anderson Hernandez (26) Sept/Oct :  .273 / .375 / .345   Season:  .333 / .407 / .383

The new starter might be this guy.  His season’s end kept the older and less exciting Hernandez in the mix for a job next season.  Most impressive was the 9 walks in 55 at bats, but as the Nats are want to do - no power.

A cursory glance and you might wonder why he’s not the favorite to start.  Thing is - the difference between him and Emilio wasn’t great in September.  3 more hits, 1 more XBH,  1 more walk.  That’s not enough to sit the better, younger prospect.  Anderson must wait his turn, but if Emilio can’t hit that wait may not be very long.  (and we might be subject to another season of amazing bad hitting from one position - what would a Nats season be without that though?)

Alberto Gonzalez (26) Sept/Oct :   .306 / .359 / .472    Season:  .347 / .407 / .531

Alberto was fighting for nothing but a backup role in 2009, but he might have won it. He certainly deserves a chance putting up good numbers at the plate, in admittedly limited play.  (39 PAs)

With Guzman signed until he makes us regret it again, Alberto is nothing more than a back-up.  That’s fine.  The intriguing number for the Nats is that SLG percentage.  Alberto is not a guy who is going to hit even 15-20 HRs.  But he does have the potential for very good doubles power, more so than Hernandez or Bonaficio.   A possibility would be Gonzalez being 2nd in line for 2nd base, and Hernandez being the back-up SS.  Anderson did play some there at the end of the year.  Neither of the two can really be called prospects though - not at this age with their stats - and getting a decent season from either would be a big bonus.

Ryan Zimmerman (24) Sept/Oct :  .290 / .347 / .516   Season: .283 / .333 / .442

Zimm did what he needed to in September.  He hit better and he hit for more power.  Much more.  5 of his 14 HRs came in the month, 6 of his 24 doubles.  We were all worried that Zimmerman’s lack of power was not just the injury but a trend.  This month didn’t eliminate those fears, but it did push them to the back burner.

Zimmerman is the starting 3rd baseman.  He is set.  Even more so than Flores, next year isn’t make or break for Zimmerman.  But that doesn’t mean next year isn’t important to Zimm.  He wants to prove he’s not just a starter, but a star.  We haven’t seen that yet - his slow starts are limiting his overall stats.  Next April and May are big months for Ryan.  A fast start and he could be in line for the pay day he wants.  

Lastings Milledge (24) Sept/Oct :    .297 / .340 / .385    Season:  .268 / .330 / .402

Milledge ends the season leaving a good image in the heads of Nats fans.  He hustled, he hit well, he gave a glimpse of the player the Nats were expecting back from that deal.  No, he didn’t hit for the power he did in other months, but those were the flukes not September. 

Milledge will start in the outfield.  The question is where.  He himself understands that his batting numbers don’t translate well into a corner outfielder.  That’s where you usually hide a good power hitter.  At this point though the corner is likely where he’ll be.  He just isn’t a good CF.  LF all season is probable.  I hope he just puts the power fears behind him and concentrates on putting out a .300 season (with like a .370 OBP).  The Nats aren’t in a position to worry about the type of offensive production they are getting.  Just give them something good.

Elijah Dukes (25) Sept/Oct :  .253 / .423 / .520   Season: .264 / .386 / .478

September showed you what Elijah is - a threat.  Even when he’s not hitting well he can still put the ball out of the park and his eye is good enough to keep him getting on base. If there was any doubt remaining that Elijah was an all-year starter in 2009 he erased it in September.

Unless Zimmerman (or perhaps Milledge) steps up their game, Dukes is the only true power threat for the Nats.  Will he hit .230 and be usable, .260 and be productive, or .290 and be a star?  My guess is somewhere inbetween the latter two. He’ll play all season long, the question again is where?  With Milledge in left and Austin Kearns playing out a contract in right, that leaves Elijah in center - not ideal but you can’t take this bat out of the lineup.  Personally I’d like to see Dukes in right and Kearns in center.  Make it clear that the Nats have the corners set, give the two time to learn those spots and show other teams that the Nats are looking for a centerfielder.

Wily Mo Pena (27) Sept/Oct:  N/A  Season:  N/A… i mean  .205  .243  .267

Pena officially isn’t young any more, clearly in those prime years from 25-29.  Pena has no space on the field and really shouldn’t be on there anyway.  I’m not saying Pena can’t be successful, but as a guy known for needing everday at bats to stay in the groove, he can’t be successful here. He should be shipped for whatever to an AL team who needs a DH (Oakland? Cleveland? Seattle? Detroit?)

Really Pena serves as a precautionary tale.  He finished roughly the last 5th of the season with the Nats in 2007 and hit .293 / .352 / .504 with 8 HRs.  Many floated a worst case scenario for Wily Mo as a low average 30+ HR season.  As we see - that wasn’t the worst case.   Yes, you can say it was injury but just as important, it was youth - or more accurately inexperience.  You project how a player does based on how he’s done before.  Young players have less “times before” than older players so your projections, your guesses, are going to have a greater chance of being wrong.  Yes, Elijah looks like he should be a beast, yes Emilio looks like he should be a AAA starter, but with young guys you never can tell for sure.

Paraphrasing Stan :  “The Nats will get the attendance they deserve”

Well, not quite, Stan.  The Nats, despite having the worst record in the majors, did not have the worst attendance in the league. They were #20, and deserved that #19 spot but a lost home game cost them a spot in the teens.  The final tally?  2,320,400 or 29,005 a game.  Not bad, but not terribly good. If this were your average season, you’d accept that number and move on.

Of course it wasn’t an average season.  The Nats opened a new ballpark this year (how easy it is to forget), and drawing only 2.32 million fans to the first season of a new park is disappointing.  A new park is supposed to be an attraction in itself, something to bump up fan interest while the management works on other things.  The new park drew a scarce 375K more fans into the seats than last year, or about 4700 more fans per game.  That’s not enough, not for a market of this size.  

There are plenty of reasons/excuses on why this didn’t happen, but all that really matters is that it did.  Fewer fans equals less revenue which could equal less money management commits to the team.   This can create a vicious cycle of losing.  History tells us that this kind of losing can drive a team out of any area.  With the District’s history of losing teams, we’ll hear about this more and more if the fans don’t come.  Moot point you say?  The Nationals are “stuck” in DC for the long term thanks to the new park?  One would think so, but given the Lerner’s are fighting now not to pay rent because the city didn’t deliver on what they expected, is it crazy to think they can go a few steps further?   That they could fight to leave in 3 years because the city didn’t deliver?  Yeah, it probably is crazy, (what city would go into a public financing deal if a team can just pull up stakes in 5 years?) but the “probably” is what bothers me.  I want definitely, absolutely crazy.

What should the Nats expect/hope for/need/dread in attendance next year?  Let’s assume, like most of us do, that the team improves next year - health, injuries and the like.  Where does that put them?  Without the unlikely free agency move - let’s say 75 wins.  Not a great season but certainly a season of watchable baseball and a notable improvement over this year.  That should increase attendance.   Working against the Nats is the fact the stadium isn’t new anymore and the fact the Nats are out of the honeymoon period now.  For fans in the DC area, baseball isn’t the shiny new toy anymore.  Now the apathy that comes with losing season after season begins to creep in.  This kind of apathy takes back to back winning seasons to break.

Right now, I would expect somewhere in the neighborhood of 2.0-2.1 million.  Even though it’s a better season the interest isn’t going to increase with a better team unless it’s significantly better.

I would hope for 2.4-2.5 million.  This would show a growing fanbase regardless of the park and a winning season would potentially explode this figure past the 3 million mark.

The Nats probably need NOT to drop in attendance, especially if they are 15 games or so better.  By lowering tickets prices they are showing they are aggressively fighting the sophomore slump.  I’d expect one or two more things designed to bring in fans to be announced over the offseason.  Smaller ticket plans, attractive family plans, new amenities.  Dare we even say it : a marquee free agent?

The dreaded number would be anything below 2 million.  That would mean the park bought the Nats one year of decent attendance and now they HAVE to earn it on the field, with a winning ballclub ASAP.  This is something that may not happen for several more years unless the cards play out right.   This would be a portent of bottom of the barrell attendance.  I don’t think this will happen - though that could change if the Orioles start providing an interesting alternative.  (Look out 2013 Nats!)

I take back what I said earlier.  The Nats do get the attendance they deserve, but it’s inexorably tied to the successes and failures of the major league squad.  Everything else is playing at the fringes.  Give the city a consistent winner and we’ll see strong numbers.  Give the team a loser, even one filled with youth and potential, and the seats will remain empty.  The Nats are trying to create a consistent winner, but are taking the slow road.  Is it going to be so slow that it will seriously damage the fanbase?  We’ll see.

[A side note : Boston averaged “104%” attendance per game this year.  This is ridiculous.  Not the fact that they can draw fans - winning team, passionate fanbase, historic park - that should happen.  No, my problem is with the 104%.  There’s probably good reason for this, though all I can think of is that they are making 1000+ fans pay for the privelege of standing in Fenway during a game.  In my head selling out every game = 100%.  That’s the way it should be.  If you are going to allow in a certain number of fans into every game beyond the seats you have then that’s your new maximum capacity. 

Forget the price cut.  The Nats should rip out seats, say they only got 15K, then bring in folding chairs for game time.  Instant 180% attendance for the year!]

A few days ago I made my HORRENDOUSLY incorrect picks for the playoffs. Picks so bad, you could swear I’ve got that book that Biff had in Back to the Future and I was purposely trying to throw you off my trail.  Well anyway, I noted the teams that had the Nats that were left and how did they do?

The Twins with one active ex-Nat never officially made it into the playoffs.  

The Cubbies with the most ex-Nats got swept out of the playoffs.

It’s a disease.  We should probably just sweep the team clean, throw out everyone involved in this mess, disinfect the stadium, and bring in all new healthy people. 

Given that you think I would favor Boston and Philly in the series, given their complete lack of Nationals taint.  However, I’m thinking more Dodgers and Rays.  These teams cast away the disease before it could get to them, LA pulling Gary Bennett off the active roster, the Rays dealing Brendan Harris to the Twins.  They are now innoculated, what hasn’t killed them has made them stronger.   They are the true scrappy survivors of the post season. 

Now that the playoffs are decided (and I proved myself to be spectacularly wrong) and the Nats aren’t in it, you may need a team to root for.  But which one to choose?  They all look so good!  

Some people, like me and the greatest franchise of all-time Yankees, have other loyalties.  Some go with division teams.  Others go against division teams.  Some find a player or two they like and go for that team.  Other have players/coaches/friends they don’t like and cheer for their teams to lose.  It’s all up to you.  In case you are having trouble deciding.  I’ve come up with some reasons to pull for (or root against) every team in the playoffs.

National League

Chicago Cubs

For : A blessed end to the stories about Billy Goats and Bartman.  Waiting 100 years is deserving, especially when it wasn’t filled with a bunch of close calls, but instead year after year of mind-blowing suckitude.  The best team in the NL this year. Wrigley hosting World Series baseball - totally cool. 

Against : Could turn the Cubs fans insufferable (see: Red Sox).  Baseball would lose the last of the truly long-suffering squads.  Would have to turn to Cleveland next for stories. Yawn.

Los Angeles Dodgers

For : More Dodger baseball means more Vin Scully.  Zack Morris’ team.  More shots of Kirk Gibson’s ‘88 Series HR. Shouldn’t the Dodgers be in a World Series every 20 years or so?

Against : More Dodger baseball means more Tommy Lasorda.  Might be the worst team in the playoffs. You don’t want anyone who thought signing Andruw Jones and Juan Pierre was a good idea being rewarded by the Gods.  LoDuca.

Milwuakee Breweres 

For : What has Milwuakee done to you?

Against : What has Milwuakee done for you?

Philadelphia Phillies

For : Kept the Mets out of the playoffs, don’t they deserve some sort of reward?  For all the sports in Philly and the passion of their fans, they’ve gotten little return on their emotional investment.

Against : Then again, they are Phillies fans.

American League

Boston Red Sox

For : If you are a fan of having great teams, a win by the Red Sox would cement them as the dyansty of the late 2000’s and potentially beyond.  Always fun to watch a game played at Fenway.

Against : You need me to think of a reason?  How about Papelbon’s face?  Ok seriously : Insufferabilty of fans would grow even larger.  Dustin Pedroia could become the new Jeter and sportstalk would focus on how great he was until 2020 or so.  Talk about the team with the 4th highest payroll in baseball (133 million) being “gamers” who “know how to win”.

Chicago White Sox

For : Perennial Underdogs in their own town.  Would be nice to see Thome and Griffey win one. Would make Jay Mariotti unhappy, I bet.   Possibly the only team in the AL who wouldn’t be saddled with “Plays the game the right way” rhetoric.

Against: Didn’t they just win one? Have arguably the least likeable announcer (Hawk Harrelson), least likeable player (AJ Pierzynski), and you may hate the manager (Ozzie Guillen) too.   

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

For : A quality team that has gotten little notice all year long.  Vlad still hasn’t won one.  West Coast games always pose a problem for major league baseball it can be fun to watch them squirm.

Against : Not nearly as good as record would indicate.  Like the Red Sox, we’d hear about the scrappiness of a team with a high payroll.   Outside of Vlad who on this team are you interested in seeing for more than one series?

Tampa Bay Rays

For : For the haters of large payroll teams would prove that you can win without spending a lot of money.  Would serve as a nice showcase for a ton of young talent. Given the competition in the AL East, have a difficult path here every year - should do the most with it while they can.

Against : We already know you can win in a single season without spending a lot of money - don’t need to keep hearing it. They have like 15 thousand fans total, not at the games, but in the country.   The “Trop” in the World Series?  No thank you.  May give the Lerner’s ideas that going only youth is a sure way to succeed - hello 30 million dollar payroll.

Today - Twins over the White Sox.  Seems like one of those games that the no name pitcher comes out and dominates.  The Twins have the no name guy going (Blackburn).

ALDS

Boston over the Angels - The Angels have only won one playoff series since winning the World Series, yet you never hear anything but praise for these scrappy bastards.  Oh to be the #2 baseball team in a market already laid-back about success.

Twins over the Rays - The Rays will be the second biggest story if they can make it past this round (behind the Cubs) so obviously they will lose.

NLDS

Cubs over Dodgers - Have you seen the Dodgers?  Talk about a roll of the dice. Everyone’s collective Cubs-love will not allow them to lose.  Doubles ruled Home Runs, fair ball called foul,  runs mysteriously tacked onto the scoreboard

Brewers over Phillies - It’s the Phillies.  

ALCS

Twins over the Red Sox - The media is slated to lose at least one favorite each round and this year the Cubs are more important. 

N     L    C    S   NLCS! NLCS! NLCS!

Cubs over Brewers - Seriously they won’t be allowed to lose.

World Series

Twins over Cubs - Twins are unbeatable at the homerdome in the World Series, despite how much they actually suck.  Maybe next year Cubs 

You see this way, my prediction can be totally ruined by 10:00PM today and then I don’t have to worry about it anymore. This is also the match-up one would predict if they went by former Nationals.  There are only two in the post-season unless I’m mistaken.   Brendan Harris on the Twins and Daryle Ward on the Cubs.  (ed - note.   Steven tells me some guy named “Soriano” played for the Nats.  I’ll take his word for it)

It’s fate I tells ya.

The season, is finally, mercifully over. 

It was a strange finish.  By mid-August the team had finally put out the core on the field healthy and ready to go. After a 9-2 stretch in late August / early September, I thought we’d have another typical Nats finish.   Go .500, fill the team and fans with just enough hope (”If only we were healthy all year!  Also, I just drank a bottle of shampoo.  Is that bad?”) to keep everything the same.  But no, From Sept 2nd on the Nats went 6-17, 3-14 in their last 17 games.   Even the Mets didn’t play that badly.   The “healthy” Nats, even including the streak, put together a run that would give this team 71/72 wins over the course of a season.  The Nats are bad.  No way around it this year.  Things had to change.

And changes are coming.  The first moves have taken place with everyone that management felt wasn’t going to be part of the solution gone.   These guys may not have been part of the problem, but with a team this bad, the management pruned liberally.  I back this line of thinking.

(I do want to add that part of me is thinking “Maybe these guys were cut because they were going into their 3rd year of coaching and had gotten too expensive.  First year coaches would be cheaper”   I don’t think this is the truth, but I feel bad that I think this way.   Not bad for myself, bad for the team.  I honestly think it’s an outside possibility men were fired only to save a few dozen grand in an operation worth hundreds of millions.)

Of course there is one more guy in line who looks like he’s not part of the solution.  Many think he IS the problem.  But according to the Post’s article all about relationships, he’s here for one more year at least.

Indications are that Bowden will be back, too, in 2009: Nobody within the organization interviewed for this article had heard the slightest hint that Bowden would lose his job.

Sorry FJB.

All in all the season was more than disappointing.  Injuries to a good team would be disappointing.  A healthy mediocre squad would be disappointing.   With the Nats we saw injuries to a mediocre squad.  The end result? 59 wins and a season begging to be forgotten.  

House cleaning.  All but Acta and St. Clare now unemployed.  Blame the economy

Not even close, but a U.S.S. Mariner post about one of the other geeks sitting at the loser table at lunch, Seattle, got me thinking about the Nats and their place in infamy.

Are the Nats the worst team in frachise history?

(That means the Nats and Expos, not the various Washington teams you revisionist bastards. I’ll get to you in a minute)

No they aren’t.  They do sit alone at 3rd place all-time in losses right now, but they have no chance to catch the top two teams, the bicentennial Expos (guess the focus was on other things for Montreal that summer) who lost 107 games, and the expansion 1969 team who lost 110 games.  Still third most losses in 40 years of baseball is quite a feat and it’s the most losses, obviously, since that ‘76 team over 30 years ago.  For those of you that think 100 loss seasons happen all the time. They don’t.  (Hey Boswell talks about that!  thanks to NatsEnquirer)   Pittsburgh, who has been bad roughly since the ballad of Frankie and Sid, have only lost 100 games 1 time during this ongoing stretch.

Are the Nats the worst team in the history of Washington?

I’m only looking at the “Twins” Senators and the “Rangers” Senators, so forgive me if I miss the Washington MuckRakers of 1898 or something.

Again no, as you’d probably have guessed.  Combined these teams had 70 years of history, mainly a history of losing, to go up against.  99 losses?  Ha! Barely cracks the Top 10.  With the rainout the ”best” the Nats can do is lose out and finish with 102 losses, tying them for 5th all-time.  The unreachable depths? The original team holds the 1st, 2nd and 4th place spots.  Impressive feats considering they played 8 fewer games.   The ‘49 Senators had 104 losses.  The ‘63 Senators (with 162 games) were 3rd with 106 losses.  In 2nd place we have a team from so far back Shirley Povich was knee high to a grasshopper(grasshoppers being much bigger back then), the 1909 Senators with 110 losses.  And in first place comes a team that even predates Povich - the 1904 113 loss squad.

You’ve got to have heart, indeed.  

This team stinks.

If you are wondering why there’s been an increased amount of negativity surrounding the club in the past week or so that’s the reason.  You look back at the past month, maybe you can spin things positively.  You look back at the past year, as one is going to do considering it is the season’s end, and you see a mess.  Win and everything is forgiven.  Lose and it’s open season.  The Nats lost big.

The newest things?  A Sporting News rumor (through NatsFanBoyLooser) and the Post attacks the attendence.

Of course I’m nothing if not a contrarian.   I can’t do much to dispute rumors but I’ll note Stan Kasten himself says he’s staying.   Stan is a master at spin, but I’ve never considered the man anything but honest.  Sure maybe the truths he tells sometimes are half-truths but they are truths nonetheless.   So if he says he plans to stay I believe him. 

[Of course I am also honest like the guy on the penny and it would be wrong of me not to mention how I read this article

“I have no plans to leave at all…My plan is to stay here.”

Harper reads : Stan wants to see this through and he won’t quit.  However, if the owners want to fire him, it’s their call. 

“I absolutely get along with the Lerners. We discuss everything vigorously, debate it and work through things. My relationship with every member of the family has been outstanding.”

Harper reads: Stan respects these guys.  They do for the most part get along as people and coworkers.   He never says he likes where they are going with the team though. ]

On the attendance: I’ve looked at this alot and I can tell you that the <2.4 million drawn is disappointing.  However, I can also tell you that expecting them to be high up on the list of recent park openings that FJB diligently put togetheris a mistake.  My best case estimate only had the Nats scraping 13th right around Miller Park.  Why were the Nats doomed to a “low show”?

1) They stink now.  Pretty much every team that drew better, did better.  This is in part the franchise’s fault.  Most teams try to coincide a shot at winning with the opening of a new park. The Nats opened up a new park in what amounts to Year 2 of rebuilding effort.  Poor choice for setting attendance marks but can you blame the Nats for what amounts to bad timing?  You do like the Plan don’t you?

2) They stunk last year.   You can only build off previous attendance to a certain degree. The Nats were near the bottom of the attendance pile last year.  They’ve increased attendance by roughly half a million.  Nn raw numbers that’s not nearly the best increase we’ve seen but it is in line with some.  For example, the Braves only went up half a million from the previous years attendance when moving from Fulton-County to Turner Field.   If you look at percentage increase, the Nats fare even better.

3) They already had their “big deal” moment two years ago.   With the exception of the Rockies, the opening of the new park was the biggest thing to happen for these squads in over 20 years.  Generations had passed without a new stadium.  Getting one was a huge deal. For the Nats, it’s been….what 3 years?  It’s new and shiny, but it isn’t era-defining. 

No not by the article in the Washington Times.   Did you hear Clay Aiken is gay?   Can I believe in anything anymore?  Help me Poison!  

I don’t feel that the article introduced anything we didn’t know. This season sucks. The Lerners can be overly frugal. Some of the staff aren’t happy. The fans aren’t coming, watching, listening, touching, smelling or tasting. Maybe we haven’t heard some of this for a while. Let’s face it, this team hasn’t been really worth talking about on a daily basis for months now. But these issues have always been there.

So now what? Now…nothing. Well, now most likely nothing. The team will improve next year. Youth, health, etc. It would take a great stroke of bad luck to repeat a 100 loss season. If improvement is inevitable then nothing drastic has to be done and we’ve seen if nothing has to be done at the major league level, then nothing is done.

It’s been a disappointing season all-around but the team is better set up for the future. It can be frustrating, but that’s what you get when you build from the ground up. Despite what people may tell you there is no time frame for a rebuild. Prospects are inherently variable. Some mature quickly, some take time, many don’t mature at all. The Nats are committed to youth so they will do their best to stockpile youth and one day - maybe next year, maybe 2010, maybe 2015 - things will click and then they’ll be ready for the next step.

The questions are (1) what will the Lerner’s do when we reach that next step, and (2) can everyone wait until then? If the answer to (2) is no then…well…that’s a topic that’s new.

A meaningless 6-2 loss, ending a sweep that doesn’t even put them in spot for the #1 draft pick.  Nice.  (what a performance by the Mariners though, 11 game losing streak.) 3 more games at Nationals Park this year and is there any more fitting way to end it then with at 3-game mid-week series with the Florida Marlins?  You could be attending these games in person and forget they are taking place. 

The Nats need to go 5-1 to avoid 100 losses this year.  That means they need to take at least 2 from the Marlins in these next three games.  Normally that isn’t an issue, but considering they’ve taken exactly 2 out of the first 15 from Florida, I’m not betting on the guys in red.   Personally I’m just hoping for 2 wins to avoid a win total in the 50s.

Odalis Perez managed to strikeout 11 Padres in 6 innings.   A nice showing but he’s still Odalis Perez.   Someone might bite on a decent two-year deal but I hope it’s not the Nats.  Zimmerman finally had another HR, bringing him within one of team leader Lastings Milledge with 14. Bonaficio didn’t get many hits, but did manage 4 walks over the weekend.  If he can make himself a more discerning batter, he might just be able to hang on at the major league level.

It’s been a generally good time for the Nats over the past month or so.   They finished August with a 6 game win streak and have gone 6-10 in September.   Nothing to crow about but a far cry from the 10-27 morass that followed post All-Star break.  And unlinke…oh the entire rest of the season… it’s been the offense that has been driving the wins.  Even in last nights loss they put a good number of men on base.  

How good has the offense been?  .287  /.362 / .444 in the past 28 days.  6th in the NL in scoring in September.  4th in OPS.  It’s been good. And it’s been a team effort

Zimmerman has hit like we remember he could (.330 / .390 / .509 in last 28 days). 

Millledge ( .280 / .352 / .398 ) and Dukes (.310 / .443 / .704 ) have been the players we hoped they could be. 

Guzman re-upped his contract with Ol’ Scratch (.419 / .449 / .656 ).  

Even Kory CAAAAstro (apologies to Nats Enquirer) is hitting (.346 / .393 / .423  )

The best part, other than Zimmerman’s power dropping, they haven’t slowed down at all for the past month. The past 2 weeks numbers are very similar.  

Of course not everyone can be hitting.  Of most interest is Emilio Bonaficio who has shown himself to be super-streaky   Over the past 28 days his numbers don’t look that bad (.268 / .333 / .339 - ok that’s still bad but you can suck it up for his speed and defense) but the past 2 weeks have been awful (.185 / .241 / .185 ).  Back of the envelope - he must have been hitting about .350 the first two weeks of this period.  This is much like his first month with the Nats where he was red hot at first and then proceeded to be unable to hit the ball at all.  Willie Harris (.247 / .365 / .395 ) and Anderson Hernandez ( .269 / .367 / .308) are doing nothing for their 2009 chances.

28 days doesn’t mean all that much in the scheme of things.  It may just be coincidence - 4 starters + Casto all getting hot at the same time.  It happens.  But it’s nice to see these guys showing the are capable of hitting at high levels for sustained periods of time because that’s what the Nats need from them to have a decent offense.  Can you depend on these guys?  Maybe.  Zimmerman has done it before, Guzman has enough at bats behind him that you don’t forsee a total collapse into the .220 range.  They’ll be acceptable.  Dukes and Milledge?  We’ll have to see.  Milledge’s year this season (which will be about 140 games) will be the first full season completed by either of them. For all the excitement about these two remember - you were probably absolutely hyped to see what Wily Mo would do this season.  Prospects are prospects for a reason.

On the flipside of the offense Emilio remains a big question mark.  He’s young but not super young (2 weeks younger than Milledge actually - it still boggles my mind that Milledge is that young because he feels about 2-3 years older.  You know how many other players have played for the Nats this year who are younger than Milledge?  Two.  Martis and Balester).  He’ll have to “get it” in the next couple of years or he probably never will.  The Nats will have to see what Nick does and if Jesus can be a good plate presence all season long (he really struggled as the season wore on - not uncommon for a young catcher), and if Austin Kearns is completely done, or usable in that last position slot.

It’s an offense with more promise than last year with two better prospects in Milledge and Dukes having those games behind them.  It’ll be better if only because their are likely to be fewer injuries and less Langerhansian and Estradan at-bats. But can you depend on it being substantially better?  No, not yet.  There are too few certainties to say that.  

The Nats have the best offense in the world (assuming you only count games versus the Mets in August) 8 runs, 10 runs, 7 runs, 1 run (hey where’d you come from…oh yeah the rest of the season), 7 runs.  Given a normal performance by the pitching staff the Nats should be 4-1 maaaaaybe 3-2.  But no, last nights loss puts them at 2-3 during this 5 game stretch.  That’s only half-spoiling boys!  Let’s get on it.

The Nats lost despite a furious comeback against the Mets 8.5 on the Richter scale shaky bullpen.   Shairon Martis failed this time.   Two things to take away from this - (1) “He’s only 21.  These games will happen.  Don’t get to worked up over it.” (2) “He’s young and the Nats can’t plan on all these guys being good.  With prospects they have to have a little bit of luck.”  The Nats are gambling with all these young players, but the talent is there so the odds are better and the payouts are big.  Since they’ve got a lot of bets on the table they don’t need all to pan out, just a handful. 

But it’s still a gamble.

Tonight it’s Johan.  This is where an unstoppable force (the Nats offense vs the Mets) meets an unmovable object (the Nats proclivity to get shutout by great pitchers).  We’ll see what wins.

Yes!  The Nats forced Flores to give up the quest for 10-20 meaningless 2008 at bats.  Thank you.

I was pointed to this by commenter and comedy routine firstbaseman Hoo.   Boz wrote a column about the team and free agency.    FireJimBowden picks it apart but I’m not as inclined to do so.  Sure Boz makes some of his usual dumb statements - Payroll could drop $20 million (unlikely with arbitration, various rising contracts already in place and the usual $3 million dollar specials the team likes to pick up), bringing up Andruw Jones name in a paragraph about going out and signing free agents (I still don’t think that was a horrible deal by the Didgers by the way - they aren’t a team that’s going to act like they are strapped for cash if they want a free agent and the deal comes off the books after next year) - but Boz’s overall point mirrors what I (and a lot of others) have been saying for a while now.

We haven’t seen money sunk into the payroll of this team.

We’ve seen the team cut corners previously - last years food service, tickets and parking issues, this year’s Nats caravan.  

We won’t be sure we will ever see money sunk into the payroll of this team until we see it.

Call it lack of faith, or call it a lifetime of watching sports owners act like they have, but that’s the issue that is on the plate now.  This is not a call to go out and make crazy deals, or to abandon the minors.  It’s not a statement that I believe the Lerner’s won’t spend money when they need to.  But it’s something to worry about.  I think I said it best in a comment I made on FireJimbo so I’ll just retype it here.  This is the question that concerns the Nats fans now as free agency and adding to the payroll becomes more and more relevant:

Of course everyone wants to win and everyone wants to make money, but what is of PRIMARY importance? Winning or Earning? Something has to take precendence.

On a different note, Kasten had this to say about attendence which is going to slide in just around 2.4 million.

As for attendance, now averaging 29,379 and ranked 19th in baseball — disappointing to many observers for a new park in a sizable market — Lerner says, “We met all our objectives on realistic numbers. We expected to draw 2.2 to 2.4 million and we’ll end up at 2.3 million. We’ve reduced prices on 7,500 seats for next season.”

Either he’s lying or the Nats management has damn low expectations.  As I’ve noted several times before 2.4 was my low-end estimate.   2.4 million is both a low-end increase in terms of the previous season (at about 1.9 million) and a low-end final number compared to other markets of this size.   To not reach even that has to be considered a disappointment.

No 5-4, 4-3 game where you wonder where exactly to place the blame.  No trying to parse out where the big hit was missed, or if a bullpen decision was the right one or not.  None of that. 

A 1-0 shutout against Odalis Perez. There’s no question who failed there. Only 4-hits even.  Thank you Mets offense for the gift of clarity in the face of choking.  

That makes tonight’s game a MUST win for the Mets and it’s hot rookie on (ED. - non-rookie) action.  For the Nats its Shairon Martis, who has looked good in two starts.  Will he continue to make a play for the ‘09 rotation and save the Lerner’s a couple million bucks?  For the Mets it’s Brandon Michael Knight (his real name, not a Knight Rider joke).  Can he kick in the Turbo Boost and win the whole KITT and kaboodle?   (I don’t see your problem) 

Ok, spoiling is important to me, but for the Nats…well Manny says “We’re not spoilers”.  Manny’s world is being made a little easier with another decent performance from the Nats annointed saver Joel Hanrahan.  It hasn’t been the best stretch for Joel.  In fact this was his first hitless performance since August 30th.  They won’t say Joel was in danger of losing his spot but his last five performances say otherwise.  Four with runs scored, 3 with earned runs scored.  9 hits and 5 walks in 4.2 innings.   He needed a good outing and quick and he got one, downing Wright, Beltran and Delgado in the 9th.

Also in bullpen news Mike Hinkley got the outs in a tought spot in the 8th and he is still holding on to that 0.00 ERA.   It’s been 10 apperances now.  He’s walked only 1 guy so far.  An impressive debut and most importantly, setting the Nats up with the knowledge of whose arm they are going to try to blow o…I mean who they are going to use as their main bullpen guys next year. 

Stand down, Flores!

September Spoiler Standings

Nats v Phillies : 2-1, 3 more to play

Nats v Mets : 1-2, 3 more to play

If the Mets were realistic with themselves last night was a game they might have expected to lose.  Lannan’s solid.  Pedro - who knows. Plus the Mets were coming off a deflating blown save to Atlanta, Ayala reacting perfectly to my praise of him last week.  It was set up to be a loss for Apu’s favorite squadron and it was.  That’s nice and all but I need more “we shouldn’t lose that game!” angst in a spoiler role.

Tonight, I could get it.  Mike Pelfrey, he of the Dukes incident, has been a solid pitcher for the Mets down the strech.  Odalis is Odalis.   Lose tonight and the Nats, who have scored 8,10 and 7 runs in their last three games against the Mets, are officially in their heads. 

100-loss Avoidance Plan

It’s been a roughl stretch for the Nats recently but they haven’t put themselves out of the race for 99- losses.  6-6 or better will leave them with a loss total in the double digits.  Small victories, folks.

Other boring news.

Young and Flores might miss rest of the year.    My only question is “why, ‘might’”? What will putting these guys into the lineup now do for the Nats.  Get Flores home and let him rest.   Get Young home and let him work his ass off to stay in shape.  Of course being injured keeps him from working out, meaning the Nats may have just thrown another 5 million out the window.  The Nats can’t afford to lose what amounts to 75% of their expected 2009 payroll.  

It was the best of times.

When Luis Ayala left the Nats, most fans were relieved.  Ayala had been driven hard every year and it had taken a toll.  Full years in 2003 & 2005 sandwiching a huge one in 2004, plus some extracurricular work in the World Baseball Classic, led to an elbow injury and a lost season and a half.  The Nats didn’t learn any lessons though and as soon as Ayala was back the Nats were at it again. He pitched in roughly every other game in the second half of 2007. Same for 2008, injury be damned.  Ayala responded with a 5.17 ERA last year and a 5.77 one this year. He looked tired, flat, done.  

While he still had potential to return to form as a good reliever it seemed that he needed rest.  It seemed that he was done being an effective pitcher in 2008, and in the back of my head, 2009 and beyond didn’t look so hot either. 

He gets moved to the Mets and surprisingly he pitches well.  Not just well, but damn good.  2.25 ERA.  12 IP, 8K, 1BB.  Soon Billy Wagner goes down for the season, and all of a sudden Luis Ayala is not only pitching for a first place squad, he’s closing for them. 

In less than a month, Luis went from on the edge of being shut down for the year while pitching middle relief on a last place team to closing for a division leading team likely heading into the playoffs.  Crazy.

 It was the worst of times

By midseason, Jon Rauch was one of the few bright spots in the Nationals season.  He had been used hard as well in 2006 and 2007, but as a converted starter, he seemed heartier and showed no ill-effects of the workload.  He was the #2 guy for the Nats for a couple years anchoring down a very effective back of the bullpen (when the Nats could actually get to the late innings with a lead).  He liked the role so much that he brushed away any thoughts of returning to starting.

In 2008 he got his chance to be the #1 guy when Chad Cordero went down with an injury.  After a slightly shaky start, he didn’t disappoint.  15 saves.  2.38 ERA.  Some hat tips in reference to the All-Star game.  It was only natural that teams came around looking to see if they could grab the Nats’ bullpen ace, the man with 2 1/2 years of consistenly good performance.

Traded to the Diamondbacks, Rauch came in to the first placed squad and gave them everything they could want.  A 1.93 ERA in his first 10 games.  13 Ks in 9 1/3 innings.  1 walk.  5 Hs.  Then the wheels came off.

Next 12 games : 10.1 IP, 17H, 6 walks.  Almost as many HRs given up (4) as strikeouts (5).  A streak of 6 straight appearences where he gave up a run.  A 10.45 ERA.  

From All-Star talk in a year likely to set up his next few seasons as a well-paid closer, to a flailing middle reliever helping to sink his new squad. Like I said, crazy.

(Yeah last nights game was pretty interesting but there’s only so many ways to say “Dukes looks pretty good” or “what a nice season Guzman is having” or “And you, Odalis Perez, want to be my latex salesman?”.)

Sorry.  Last nights loss was my fault again. I just got done praising John Lannan to high heaven (as opposed to, of course, praising him to the other heavens.  Low Heaven - this is the one you see portrayed in movies and cartoons and the like, angels sitting on clouds, etc.   You should be able to see it when you are in an airplane.  Unless your soul is doomed to eternal damnation.   Middle Heaven - which I imagine is where Hobbits go when they die.) on the Mets mvn blog and he comes out with nothing.    I’m starting to think if I didn’t hate Guzman so much he’d be out of baseball.

A loss, which makes some happy, others sad, me ambivalent. (It’s hard to feel bad about another loss in what is a lost season.  Yes, this is the way I make it through the Yanks season in the AL, thank you very much.).  I don’t root for teams I like to lose though.   It seems counter-productive.   The Nats will have a high draft pick regardless.  They could lose big and still be “beat out” by a team that happens to lose bigger.  Then what do you have?  An awful season and a lower draft pick?  I’d rather have the few more wins.   

Yes the #1 slot is usually the most certain of all draft picks but a lot of that certainty has been built up with  position players.  Take a look at position players in the last 20 years from say…1987 to 2005.

Ken Griffey Jr.,  Chipper Jones, Phil Nevin, A-Rod, Darin Erstad, Pat Burrell, Josh Hamilton, Adrian Gonzalez, Joe Mauer, Delmon Young, Matthew Bush, Justin Upton.  

That’s a pretty good group.  Matt Bush is going to be the worst.  But he was also a #1 in a draft with no clear #1 and picked out for his signability (never a good idea).  The second worst will likely be Phil Nevin, who still managed a decade long major league career with 200+ HRs.  Now let’s look at the pitchers:

Andy Benes, Ben McDonald, Brien Taylor, Paul Wilson, Kris Benson, Matt Anderson, Bryan Bullington.

Andy Benes is the best of that group and he was nothing more than a solid .500 pitcher. All of these guys are out of baseball except for Bullington and he’s only got 2-3 more years before the cord is cut on him.   If the Nats are really dying to get the #1 pick so they can grab Strasburg…I certainly am not going to be sad if they lose out by one or two losses.

(OK you say - but what if all those pitchers were “signability” guys too?   Here are a list of all first pitchers chosen - excluding the ones already named. 

Willie Banks, Alex Fernandez, Paul Shuey, Darren Dreifort, Kerry Wood, Mark Mulder, Josh Beckett, Adam Johnson, Mark Prior, Kyle Sleeth, Justin Verlander, Ricardo Romero

Yeah there are some good names out there, but how many of these were useful starting pitchers this year? Uh-huh.   Yeah, two.   Verlander and Beckett.  And Verlander is having a very mediocre season.  I like to say rebuilding the minors is about quantity over quality.  This cannot possibly be more true than when you talk about minor legue pitching)

Nats : 12-6 vs Braves, 44-82 vs remainder of the league.  It’s the most games this franchise has taken from one team in a season since the Expos beat up on the 2003 Mets going 14-5.

The Nats have now gone 10-3 starting with the sweep of the Dodgers. It’s the great equalizing.  The nice run to make up for the horrendous stretch.  Unfortunately for the Nats it was several very bad stretches, including a 6-22 run that you just can’t compensate for.  The team is desperately trying to find their 70+win level, but they went down to far to reach it.  However other things that looked inevitable are likely to be avoided.  Halfway through the last 36 games of the season things have changed dramatically.

Can the Nats beat/match last year’s record?

No.  Despite the nice little run here, to match last year the Nats need to go 17-1 to end the season.   It ain’t happening.

Can they avoid losing 100 games?

Yes!  Originally it looked grim because the Nats hadn’t put together a 36 game streak good enough to do this all season long, even though all that was being asked was a .500 finish.  Lo and behold, after losing one more time to cap off a 12 game losing streak, the Nats have been great.  They not only put together their longest winning streak of the season (7 games) they’ve sandwiched that with .500 baseball in the other 10 games.  So since I last looked at it the Nats have gone 12-6.  All it will take is a 6-12 finish for the Nats to hit 62 wins, 7-11 to avoid 100 losses.  The way this team looks now, at worst it’s going to be real close.

Can they avoid a 5# win season?

Certainly.  4-14 will do it.  Not like the Nats aren’t capable of going 3-15.  They’ve gone 3-15 in 18 games early in the season. But that would take matching their worst 18 game stretch of the year.  I just can’t see that happening.  5 or 6 wins?  Sure.  But 3? No.

All this is possible thanks to the Braves rolling over like dogs doing tricks.  9-9 versus the Braves during the season and everything is that much tougher.  7-11 just to get to 60 wins.  10-8 to avoid 100 losses.  Thank the Braves everybdy.