Earlier, I posted the Rich Garces All Star team, an all big man group. The requirements to make this squad are similar to the Garces team: they have to be current players, they have to fill a specific position, and they have to be decent full time or close to full time guys. Except, for this team, rather than having a gut, the requirements are they have to be small, or at least relatively small for being pro athletes. I was thinking of naming this team after Eddie Gaedel, the 3′7″ who had one ML appearnce and walked, but as fun as this is, I have tremendous respect for these players. Instead, I thought it would be more fitting to name them after a small (5′7″) Hall of Famer, one who was once almost denied admission to a game he was playing in because the guards couldn’t believe he was a player. So, without further ado, the little guys with big hearts - the Phil Rizzuto All Stars.

C - Ivan Rodriguez - 5′9″, 190 - Someone nicknamed Pudge isn’t what you normally think of as a small guy. But as far as backstops go, he is short and, unlike a few years ago, he’s thin. He is considered by many to be one of the greatest defensive catchers of all time, he has 13 gold gloves, is the all time leader in putouts for the position and has close to a 50% rate at throwing out baserunners, something no catcher with significant playing time even approaches over the last 30+ years. The future Hall of Famer can also hit, while his power has faded as his size has over the years (Pudge was once a real home run threat) he still hits better than most catchers. He has career splits of .302/.339/.478, evidence of a free swinger who has hit for average and power over the years.

1B - Mark Loretta - 6′0″, 185 lbs - This is the position hardest to field on this team. It is the quintessential big man position. Not only are range and speed less valued here, the taller a 1B is, the better stretch he can make when receiving a throw from the infielders. It’s also a position that is usually for power hitters, if you’re not large enough to hit for power, you probably aren’t playing first. Exhaustive research revealed nobody considered a 1B under 6′0″. In terms of starters, the closest thing to a small player is Ross Gload, but the day I call him an All Star caliber player is the day I forget what OPS means. Mark Loretta, a career 2B, has 195 games at first, a total of 1200 innings, so for this, he qualifies. His All Star resume includes an actual trip to the ‘04 All Star game, his career year where he hit .335/.391/.495 and hit 47 doubles. His career splits of .296/.361/.397 give a good indication of a singles hitter who could always get on base, but usually didn’t hit with much power.

2B - Brian Roberts - 5′ 9″, 175 lbs - There may be a few guys playing second that are a little bigger than BRob, but not by much. And have any of them been the all around player this two time All Star has? In 2005, he hit 11 HRs by May 18th, leading many to believe that the diminutive 2B was on the verge of an historic power season. He only hit 8 more the rest of the year, but he managed to also steal 27 bases and have an OBP of .387. An ideal leadoff hitter, Roberts walks alot, steals alot, and has enough pop to make pitchers think twice about what to pitch him. Career splits of .281/.351/.411 are impressive, but don’t do him justice as his first 3 seasons were poor, he has done much better since 2004, and already has 3 HRs this season.

SS - David Eckstein - 5′ 7″, 177 lbs - A player that has been both overrated and underrated in his career, he started out on the extreme latter end. Despite hitting well in the minors, Anahein was able to claim him off waivers from the Red Sox. At age 26, he finally got his shot in the majors and proceeded to hit .285, steal 29 bases, and finish 4th in the rookie of the year voting. His sophomore season was a nice follow up as he batted leadoff for the World Champion Angels and reached base at a .363 clip. Despite his lack of power, he also managed to hit a grand slam 2 games in a row. Four years later, he was a World Champion again, this time with the Cardinals. He also won the World Series MVP, hit He will always be one of my favorite players to watch in the field because of the way he puts every ounce of his body into a throw to first.

3B - Chone Figgins - 5′8″, 180 lbs - When Desmond DeChone Figgins steps to the plate, the infield gets a little nervous. They know if the ball is hit towards them, they’re gonna have to get rid of it quickly in order to get him out. He’s fast, and while he has been criticized for not having much power, he is still a very valuable asset. His career splits of .294/.356/.398 are pretty indicative of the type of player you’re gonna get - he get alot of hits, walks a good amount, and hits with little power. His speed has led to 154 SBs from the ‘05-’07 seasons, while playing pretty much everywhere in the field other than pitcher and catcher. Actually, Chone has logged at least 150 innings at every position other than those two, and first base. I’m guessing if he ever needed to fill in there, he’d probably be able to hold his own.

LF - Shane Victorino - 5′9″, 180 lbs - Shane’s moved over to CF for the Phillies this season since Aaron Rowand left, and maybe that’s where he’ll be for a while. But the other guys on this list have never played LF, so his stints there make him the most qualified. In his two full seasons as a starter, both with the Phillies, he’s hit around .285/.346/.419 showing a little bit of power and a lotta bit of speed. Last season he hit 12 HRs and stole 37 bases while only being caught 4 times. His speed and place of birth have earned him the nickname “The Flyin Hawaiian” and while he is a very different player than the man he replaced - Bobby Abreu - he has given Phillies fans another, albeit less mentioned than his teammates, quality young position player.

CF - Corey Patterson - 5′9′, 170 lbs - Sure Corey Patterson has trouble getting on base. He makes a good example of the bad kind of leadoff hitter - managers are fooled by his speed and don’t notice his career OBP of .297. But Patterson has had some good seasons, and when not looked at as a leadoff guy, his value becomes a little more apparent. He has a good deal of power for someone his size, with a career ISO of .158, and don’t forget, he is fast. He is a legitimate threat to steal 40 bases each season, and throw in the possibility of hitting 20 HRs, or at least something close to it, and you can see why even though he’s not a great leadoff hitter, he can still add value to a lineup if used properly.

RF - Ichiro Suzuki - 5′11″, 172 lbs - Baseball reference lists him at 5′9″, 160 lbs, but whichever site is correct, nobody mistakes him for a big man when he’s out on the field. Now at CF, most of his career has been spent in RF. He was the first Japanese born full time position player in the majors and has been a staple of All Star games (7 appearances and an MVP award) and had an incredible rookie season. He became only the second player in history to win both the Rookie of the Year and MVP awards in the same season. 2004 was a major record breaking season for Ichiro - he broke the single season hits record that had been held since 1920, he was the first major leaguer to have 200 hits or more in each of his first 4 seasons, and broke Wee Willie Keeler’s record of most singles in a season, held since 1898. Besides being an incredible hitter, he has also won 7 gold gloves, in no small part due to his incredible arm. Ichiro is also unique, his approach to the plate and almost running swing are instantly recognizable, and he’s the only major leaguer that wears his given name on his uniform.

UTIL - Dustin Pedroia - 5′9″ - 180 - If that is your real weight… Dustin looks a bit smaller than that to many observers, but maybe it’s because he’s always hamming it up next to heavyweights like David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez. Pedroia is your prototypical completely underestimated prospect, he hit well enough in the minors, but then everyone said he wouldn’t be able to hit in the majors. In late 2006, he seemed to prove the analysts right hitting .191/.258/.303. But the next season he exploded going for .317/.380/.442, and while he doesn’t have a home run bat, his 39 doubles last year were enough to give him enough power to be a formidable player. Incidentally, he also was named Rookie of the Year and helped win the World Series in 2007.

SP - Tim Lincecum - 5′11″, 170 lbs - It may not seem tiny, but that’s about as small as starting pitchers get. Besides, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, the man nicknamed Seabiscuit by the scouts thanks to his completely undaunted approach to the biggest and toughest hitters, might actually not even weigh 160. In his rookie 2007 season with the Giants, he showed that he is a big part of the future of that franchise, finishing the season with 150 Ks, good enough for 5th place in the NL despite throwing only 146 1/3 innings. This season, he’s 4-1 with 45Ks in 43 1/3 innings. The little guy can make hitters swing and miss, and while this top 10 draft pick may entertain with his delivery, it’s his high 90s two-seam fastball that has helped him earned a different nickname from his SF teammates - The Franchise.

CL - Billy Wagner - 5′10″, 180 lbs - What surprised me most about doing the research for this entry was how BIG most closers are. Wagner aka Billy the Kid aka Canned Heat is actually the only under-6-foot full time closer over the last 2 seasons. Luckily, he deserves to be here not just because of his small frame, but because of his small ERA. A career closer, he’s racked up 365 saves for 3 different teams, is a 5 time All Star, has a career ERA of 2.36 and a career K/BB of about 4/1. He was born a righty but broke his arm several times and taught himself to throw lefty. It seems to have paid off, as he is one of the few pitchers to be part of the 100 mph club. Despite being 7th on the all time saves list, and despite playing for a team in New York, Wagner may be one of the most underrated pitchers of his era, and has dominated batters over his entire career.

This week, after some conversation with friends, I was inspired to stray from the normal Nats discussion and do something different, naming the Rich Garces All Star Team.

For those of you who don’t know, Rich Garces was a pitcher who spent his early career moving up and down, but settled in with the Boston Red Sox and ended up in their bullpen for 7 seasons. What was notable about him was his ability to get hitters out, and his rotundity. He is listed on his baseball reference page at 250 pounds, but that may be generous. Also notable was his nickname, El Guapo, which was not only the villain in the movie Three Amigos, it means “The Handsome One” in Spanish. Regardless, despite being non-athletic in stature, he was an effective reliever for many seasons, and was very much a fan favorite.

So here, in tribute to him, I list those current players who could give El Guapo a run for his money, even if running isn’t really their strong suit. The rules here are that they have to be current players, and they have to be decent. I’m not plugging someone into a spot just because they’re big. These are plus sized players who can really play, and mock them if you want, they’re making millions as professional athletes. I’ve listed my choice, by position, and given what ESPN has as their height and weight.

C - Ramon Castro - 6′3″, 258 lbs - The Mets have had close to a half a dozen catchers on their roster or DL since October, but none have the size of Ramon Castro. Castro, the first Puerto Rican player ever to be drafted in the first round, has been a good defensive catcher all his career, but last year with the Mets he really shined, hitting .285/.331/.556. His one career SB also came as a member of the Mets, and while a strained hamstring has kept him on the DL so far this season, he is probably going to jump to the number 2 spot on the depth chart once he is healthy.

1B - Prince Fielder - 5′11″, 270lbs - While there are many other than could have been a good choice at this position, I had to go with the man who led the NL in dingers last season. Also, his 50 HRs made him the youngest player ever in MLB history to hit 50 or more. But he’s not just a big guy with pop. He hit .288/.395/.618 last season, and after a slow start this year, he’s been putting over similar numbers over the last 2 weeks. He also is a gifted first baseman who has a range above league average, and moves much better than you would expect for someone heavier than most NFL linebackers. Fielder has decided to become a vegetarian, but not because of his own large size, rather due to his aversion to animal cruelty, and thankfully so far this has yet to affect his size or his power.

2B - Ronnie Belliard - 5′10″, 214 lbs. - As middle infielders are normally a small, spry group, there aren’t too many that are up there in El Guapo territory. Ronnie Belliard, “the Belly”, has played second base with a good bat for 11 seasons in the majors without ever being considered small or spry. In those 11 seasons he’s been a very consistent hitter with an AVG of .273, and has a World Series ring with the Cardinals. While his range may be questioned, his leadership and his ability to inspire his teammates are not - both the Nationals and the Dominican Winter League team the Licey Tigers, on which he is a staple, value him for that above all else.

3B - Miguel Cabrera - 6′4″, 240 lbs - His days at third are clearly numbered, but it’s because of his hefty frame that he will likely move to a more sedentary position, so he definitely belongs on this list. A superstar at 25, if he was anywhere but stranded down in Miami for the last few years he might be one of the most recognizable athletes in the game. What has he done in his 5 seasons? He’s got impressive career splits of .310/.386/.539, is a 4 time all star, 2 time silver slugger, he’s the 3rd youngest player to reach 500 RBIs (behind Ted Williams and Mel Ott) and already has a World Series ring. An interesting fact about Miguel - unlike Brad Nowell of Sublime, he practices Santeria, a New World religion with West African roots, and possibly has a crystal ball.

SS - Jhonny Peralta - 6′1″, 210 lbs - Jhonny isn’t exactly huge for this list, but middle infielders, especially shortstops, are traditionally a tiny bunch. Jhonny is bigger than most at this position, but he’s actually not that big. He also uses his size to his advantage, hitting 24 HRs in 2005 and 21 in 2007. He’s already got 4 this season, and he hasn’t really gotten on pace with his bat yet, so I’m expecting more. His range is pretty decent for the position, putting more svelte shortstops to shame.

LF - Dmitri Young - 6′2, 298 lbs - Ok, I tried, but I couldn’t go through this whole thing without mentioning Dmitri. He’s spent enough time in LF, and while it’s been a while, there is speculation that if Nick Johnson stays healthy all year, Dmitri will get some amount of time out there again. In the field he moves about as well as you’d expect from someone his size. But, after a disappointing and injury-plagued 2006 fraught with all sorts of legal issues, Da Meat Hook came back big time in 2007 hitting .320/.378/.491, better even than his impressive career average of .292/.349/.477, and proving that this big man can still hit. He also parlayed that impressive season into a two year deal with the Nats where the management hopes he can teach the young, sometimes troubled, prospects that when you mature enough to play without having those problems, success comes much easier.

CF - Andruw Jones - 6′1″, 240 lbs - To give you perspective on where he came from, Baseball Reference says he weighs 170 lbs, which was clearly a long time ago. TJ Simers of the LA Times says he weighed in at 248 the other day, and I am not surprised that it has gone up. After all, many people deal with stress by eating. He isn’t hitting well with his new team. But his career has been exceptional so far, a regular since he was 19 years old (the age he hit 2 HRs in his first 2 World Series ABs), Andruw has 7 seasons of 30 or more HRs, and a career total of 369, with splits of .261/.341/.494, all while being considered one of the best fielding CFs playing. Give him some time, and the man Simers called the “tubbo in center” may get back some of his old hitting abilities.

RF - Matt Stairs - 5′9″, 210 lbs - Stairs isn’t the biggest guy on this list, but he’s certainly the most experienced. At 40 years old, the man nicknamed “The Professional Hitter” has basically become a platoon hitter against righties, which he hit .288/.364/.567 against in 2007. He’s already hit 4 HRs against them this season. Still very effective at mashing RH pitchers at age 40 (.325/.360/.513 vs RHP in 2008), he could be in the majors another 5 years. Toronto is Stairs’ 10th major league team, and at 245 HRs, he ranks second all time among Canadian-born players. His lack of speed is well known and his lack of range in the outfield is understood, but his strong throwing arm and his ability to hit keeps him out there.

DH - David Ortiz - 6′4″, 230 lbs - His resemblance to Cookie Monster notwithstanding, Big Papi is a big man with big power, and likely weighs a bit more than the 230 listed. After leaving Minnesota as a platoon player, he emerged in Boston to become one of the most feared hitters in the game. He was probably the hitter a pitcher would least like to pitch to from ‘04-’06, and is definitely still high on the list. He hit 208 HRs in his 5 seasons with the Sox, and many of them seemed to be late in close game, as evidenced by being the first player to hit 2 walk off HRs in the same postseason (2004). He holds the Boston record for most HRs in a season (54), has been top 5 in MVP voting 5 times, and has been a key part of turning the Red Sox from lovable losers into something very different.

SP - CC Sabathia - 6′7″, 290 lbs - Big and strong may be a good way to describe CC, as he’s pitched 180 innings or more in all 7 of his major league seasons so far, starting when he was 20 years old. He is coming of a pretty good year, one in which he stuck out 209 while walking only 39, racked up 19 wins, and won the Cy Young. This year, his 8th, started out poorly, but he recovered in 2 of his last 3 starts to throw have the lines: 6 IP, 11 K, 0 ER and then 8 IP, 8 K, 1 ER. If he continues to pitch as he has for the previous 7 years, at only 27 he has the opportunity to sign one of the richest contracts in baseball history this offseasons. Like they say in that Wendy’s commercial - that’s over 100 million junior bacon cheeseburgers!

LOOGY - Ray King - 6′1″, 240 lbs - Have it Your Ray. The man who wears a shirt with a Burger King logo (except it says Ray King, and I’m not making that up) in the locker room isn’t afraid to put down a few burgers. Over his career, his righty/lefty splits are in batting average against are .279/.214. Since 2005, righties have hit more like .350 against him, but he is still quite effective against lefties. He has some terrific season against them recently, holding them to averages of .150 in ‘04, .244 in ‘05, .187 in ‘07 and .235 in ‘08. The rest of his game isn’t what it used to be. Watching him pitch the other night, I saw a runner steal two consecutive bases on him without him batting an eye. But try to steal a sandwich from him, and you might be in trouble. In actuality, Ray has lost some weight, an offseason diet program had him drop 23 lbs, which is what’s best for his overall health. Unfortunately for him, he was recently optioned to AAA. As effective as he is against lefties, he’ll be back in DC or somewhere in the majors soon enough.

Setup - Jonathan Broxton - 6′4″, 290 lbs - 290 lbs is a nice complement to his 100+ mph fastball, Broxton is a great setup man and is considered next in line for closer with the Dodgers. So far, going into his 3rd full season, he’s struck out 237 hitters in 186 innings while only walking 76. He looks like he can fill the role as adequately as he can fill a seat. Mark Grace once referred to him as “The Biggest Man Alive” and I’m sure watching him bear down on you from the pitchers mound would make that nickname feel pretty accurate. I’m waiting for someone to charge the mound when he’s standing up there.

Closer - Bobby Jenks - 6′3″, 273 lbs - Jenks’ career has been impressive so far, he was called up from AA in July 2005 and became the full time closer for the White Sox in September. It worked out well for him, as he earned 2 saves in the World Series, and was the first rookie to close out the Fall Classic. The last two seasons he has saved 41 and 40 games, respectively, and with his career K/BB ratio of 192/64, it’s likely that hitters are much more intimidated by his fastball than his size. In 2007 he tied the record for most consecutive batters retired at 41, making him perfect in 14 straight appearances. Most importantly, Ozzie Guillen signaled for Jenks to come out of the bullpen by holding BOTH arms out wide, saying he didn’t want the righty or the lefty, he wanted the big guy. Oh yeah, he’s also the Chicago area spokesman for the McGriddle sandwich.

Up Next

Next time, we’ll move on from the big guys to the little ones… in the meantime, let me know if there is somebody I missed here, perhaps a replacement for one of the guys I picked? If you’ve got someone in mind, post a comment.

Exciting news around here, John Beamer of The Hardball Times interviewed me and used some of the pictures of the stadium that I took in his article. I am excited about the opportunity to work with such a great site. Here is the link to the article:

Say Hello to Nationals Park

For anyone that’s surfed here from that article, here’s a few Nats Review posts to check out.

And be sure to look at the always popular Nats of the 19th century page.

John Lannan has been very impressive this season, especially his last two outings. He pitched 7 innings in each game, and despite having a 7/7 K/BB split and giving up 9 hits, he hasn’t allowed an ER. The question, then, is what has caused this to happen? Well first of all, a WHIP of 1.14 over those two games, whole nothing you would expect to lead to shutouts, is still pretty good. Over those 2 games, opponents are batting .180 off of him. So the hits aren’t there, and the walks are ok, too. But there aren’t many strikeouts. A K/9 of 4.50 isn’t exactly anything to write home about, he had better numbers there at the beginning of the season when he was allowing runs.

One of the things that has helped Lannan out has been his propensity to give up ground balls. As anyone who has watched Chien-Ming Wang over the last few seasons will tell you, you don’t need to strike people out as long as you don’t walk them, and you get most of them to pound the ball into the ground. One thing that Lannan has done well all season is induce ground balls. Every website you find has different numbers for this stat, some go by ground outs versus air outs. Others go by ground balls versus fly balls, which isn’t only outs. I’m not really sure of all the differences in how they keep the stats, but I figure there is probably constancy in where people stack up, so I used 3 different ones at once, from espn.com, cbs.sportsline.com, and mlb.com.

I’ve compared Lannan’s ratios to the other starters on the team. Also, for reference, I’ve compared them to two guys playing now, Wang and Webb, who are known as groundball pitchers. For those two, I’ve used their career ratios, just because it gives a better assessment of their true abilities.

And for those of you who prefer to see it graphically

So what does this mean? Well, not too much yet, it’s really early in the season, pitchers only have about 6 starts. But we do see that Lannan is able to compare favorably with the other starters on how easily he has induced ground balls. Those ground balls have a much tougher time leaving the ballpark than those flyballs, so that is good. And with a good infield defense, it is definitely even easier to win when you get opponents to hit grounders. We’ll have to see how he does over a full season, but regardless, he is pitching well now, and this ratio is definitely a part of it.

It’s interesting to see that Odalis Perez is also doing a very good job of keeping the ball on the ground. Looking back at his career numbers, he is usually good at this, but not nearly this good. It also continues to highlight the enigma that is Tim Redding, who is a fly ball pitcher and other than one start, doesn’t strike hitters out. I hope when the ball starts jumping in the hot summer months, he can keep up his great start.

Battery Mate Help

Another interesting thing about Lannan’s last two starts is that Wil Nieves has been his catcher. Athletes in general, and pitchers especially, are a superstitious bunch. Not that I blame them, if I was doing what they did, where a millimeter or a mph can make the difference between a strikeout or a home run, I’d be pretty superstitious, too. If Nieves make Lannan comfortable, so be it, Nieves should catch, right? Well, yes and no. He is 30 and has only been in the majors for a little bit, mostly because he isn’t able to hit major league pitching. He is an incredibly gifted defensive catcher, which is why at his age he’s still getting a shot at the majors. As for hitting, in 166 career ABs, he’s hit .187/.229/.259, and while his minor league numbers are better, his power is almost nonexistent. Fortunately, this season he has hit .348/.423/.478, inexplicable as it may be, its there. Most likely this will go down significantly. Don’t be fooled by the power, he’s had so few PAs (23), it’s all singles and one HR. Even his high OBP is from only 3 walks.

Now over the course of the season, lets say he continues to have some ability to take a walk, put his OBP-AVG at .050 for the season, and his ISO is stays where it is, at .130. As a .300 hitter, he’s quite effective at .300/.350/.430. Drop him down to .275, which is likely high for him, and he’s hitting .275/.325/.405. This is acceptable for someone of his defensive ability, but it too is unrealistic. Over his last few seasons as a minor leaguer, his ISO has been at .100 or below. Drop the average a little bit down, and you looking at something in the order of .265/.315/.390 or whatever it may be… it’s replacement level or worse, nothing you’d want playing every day, or even every 5th day if you can help it.

What’s most important for the Nats in this equation is to have Lannan succeed the way he has over the last few starts. But rather than doing so by having a catcher who can’t hit at all taking up a roster spot, pitching coach Randy St. Claire needs to figure out what it is that makes Lannan so comfortable with Nieves, and try to duplicate that with other pitchers. If every time Nieves catches, Lannan throws a shutout, then he should stay in, but that’d be some sort of record. In the meantime, while Nieves is hitting, it’s fine, let him play. His walk off home run was unexpected but much appreciated on Friday night. It was his first major league homer and great timing at that. But once this hot streak goes away, the best thing for this team is to have Lannan pitching effectively while Nieves isn’t behind the plate.

I went to my second game at Nationals Park last night, it was another barn burner. And by that I mean the Nats were in the game for 4 1/2 innings. Actually Redding did alright, and the 3-run 5th that pretty much put the game away was a combination of errors, walks, and dinky little hits that should have never been hits. Then again, depending on Ray King to field grounders is never wise.

• The crowd was large, and there were a fair number of Mets fans there. Not much more than I expected for a team that plays less than 5 hours away, in a city comprised of transients, to watch a home team that’s been around for less than 4 years. Anyway, the Nats fans were definitely louder, despite plenty of cheering from many many Mets fans. I’d say 75% capacity seemed about right, which isn’t bad at all considering what we’ve seen the first few months.
• The “O” that is yelled at many area events during the Star Spangled Banner was as inaudible last night as at any local sporting event I’ve been to. Thank god, I find it annoying to mildly offensive to interrupt the singing of the National Anthem, and extremely offensive that it is an Orioles cheer.
• Nobody sits in them fancy pants seats behind the plate. It’s insane how empty it looks there. The rest of the stadium was actually crowded, but that area was dead. In the 5th inning they should start bringing people from the 400 section down to the premier seats where tickets were never cashed in that day.
• Sections 237-239, above the home bullpen, were completely empty. There may have literally been 3 or 4 people there, but that’s it. It seems, like much of the stadium, seats that aren’t worth what they’re charging, and people have already figured it out. I’m not gonna get into the prices too much, but they gotta do a better job here.
• The food lines at the upstairs concourse were incomprehensible. Here is a brief rundown of what I observed when I got close to the place where you order

1. People behind counter yell “Who’s next?!?!”
2. Several customers look around not sure if they are next.
3. Customer who is next actually is on a cell phone discussing what his should be order, stands in way of everyone else ordering while telling them to go around.
4. Finally someone orders something.
5. Person behind counter yells to another employee who customer has already passed in line to grab their drink, as customer didn’t realize they were supposed to order the drink there.
6. Someone else comes up and gets in a verbal altercation with person behind counter about who should be taking orders.
7. Person behind counter yells to others behind the counter about the impending lack of french fries, others behind the counter respond quickly by staring blankly.
8. Customer orders food to go with improperly ordered drink.
9. Customer gets drink and food shuffles 1.5 feet to get on line for cashier #1.
10. Behind cashier #1, cashier #2 waits with no line, tries in vain to get the attention of customer to come there.
11. Customer waits until they are next in line for cashier before seeing the open cashier #2.
12. Author of blog further holds up line by asking everyone to “do it again, so I can write it down this time.”

• Seriously, they have plenty of people, but some of the food stands aren’t run very well yet.
• The ramp in the back of the stadium, behind home plate, is a 30 hour ascent to the top level. Take the escalators or the other ramps, I think that one is twice as long.
• I sat in the 300 level (320 actually) and I think these seats may be one of the better deals in the stadium.
• I love the scoreboard, and they do lots of great things, but in the 5th inning or so I noticed I couldn’t locate what the batter had done in his earlier ABs that day. I found it a little annoying, as I haven’t kept a scorecard at a baseball game in 15 years.
• Johan Santana can HIT!
• It’s hard to win a game where you walk Brian Schneider and then Johan Santana on 9 or 10 pitches.
• BLastings had plenty hit towards him, and despite some hard hit liners in his vicinity, he seemed to have no problems out there with judging.
• It took me 50 minutes to get to Bethesda from the Park, which I don’t think is bad at all. Walking up to the metro was scary, it looked like it would take forever. But everything moved relatively quickly and we were outta there way faster than I thought. Really no worse than a commute from 75th and Riverside to 161st and River Ave.
• Wily Mo hit the ball well, and Guzman continues to make me believe, uh, something.
• Who was more surprised the Wil Nieves got two hits off of Johan? Me, Johan, or Wil Nieves?
• I have a serious complaint about the condiment stands. Every time I want onions out of those onion and relish dispensing stations, I have to go to 3 or 4 different stations before I get one that gives me onions. Is the demand for onions so great? Are they rationing onions like rice at Costco? Has my girlfriend somehow called ahead to Nationals Park in order to limit my raw onion intake?
• Between Tim Redding, Odalis Perez, and John Lannan, this team may have put together the start of an actual rotation. Now if only Shawn Hill could pitch well tonight…

…so is the pitching! Right now the Nationals rank very low in the NL in most important pitching categories:

Runs Allowed per Game - 14th
ERA - 14th
BB/G - 12th
HRs - 15th
Ks -3rd

The only thing they look good in is Ks, but that has alot to do with this weekend, in which Tim Redding and Odalis Perez this weekend combining for 17 strikeouts. Before Friday they only ranked 10th in the league. The poor pitching numbers come along with very good starts from those two, Redding has an ERA of 3.27, and Perez is at 3.38, both better than most people probably expected. It’s the relievers and the other starters that seem to be an issue. As impressive as Redding and Perez have been, I’m not sure they will stay this effective, and I really don’t their their ERAs will get even better. I think with Chico’s propensity for giving up HRs, this may be his streaky self. Lannan has been effective at times, he may be able to pitch well consistently, which would be a boost. The relievers should do better, which would offset any dip from Perez and Redding, but with this group of starters, I think we’re going to be seeing this with them all season. So unless Shawn Hill is going to pitch all year (please pitch all year Shawn Hill), and Lannan can be consistently good, it’s hard to see them improving here.

In terms of the hitting numbers, so far it has been a similar story:

Runs Scored per Game - 14th
HR - 13th
Hits - 16th
BBs - 7th
AVG - 16th
OBP - 14th (tied)
SLG - 15th
OPS+ - 16th (tied)

First of all, Guzman and Johnson are hitting well, and Guzman hasn’t shown any signs of slowing down from last spring. Until he does, let’s assume he isn’t going to. Milledge started out strong but has tapered off a bit, his OBP is still great, but on Saturday his SLG dipped below .400. He is still better than the rest of the offense, where everyone else is playing pretty poorly. But there is some good news here. Belliard is usually the picture of consistency - he’s hit between .272 and .290 each of the last 5 years (of course 6 years ago he hit .211, but let’s not think about that) - so I’d be surprised if he doesn’t get back around .270 before all is said and done. Zimmerman looks completely lost at the plate, he’s swinging at the first pitch every time, and I watch him swing at stuff 3 feet outside a few nights ago. This is actually good news - he’s too good of a hitter for that to be anything permanent. He’s just pressing now and the smart money says he’ll be fine. Kearns should come out of his slump sooner or later as well, but he’s not there yet. Despite hitting 2 HRs in the last week, he still only went 4 for 20 in those games with 1 walk. Wily Mo has really just starting swinging, so he will probably need a few weeks to get on track. So, unlike the pitching, there are reasons to believe these hitting woes are nothing more than a slump.

Finally, let’s not try and panic too much. It’s been a total of 19 games. Sure, you don’t like what you see so far from all but 3 hitters. But Kearns hit a HR yesterday and his SLG jumped 50 points. The sample size is just very small right now. Give them another couple of weeks, I truly believe the hitting will come around to respectability. If it doesn’t, then management should look into making changes with the coaching staff, and the most likely candidate for such a change would be the hitting coach Lenny Harris.

I mentioned last season that the time to deal Cordero would be sooner rather than later. Without going too much into the reasons - the team has other capable closers, good teams are often one solid reliever away from feeling like they can win it all so he has a high trade value, he’s never been the most solid numbers guy (WHIP, K/BB, K/9) but has so many saves that people may ignore that and overpay, and the last thing the Nats need in 2008 to build towards a better future is a solid closer. Even if they didn’t trade him right away, his contracts is over after 2009. If he continues to perform well, he may be overpriced for the team, especially if one of the many young pitchers steps up to fill the role. If he doesn’t, then what’s the point in having him?

Unfortunately, the time to trade him may have just passed. After his shoulder problems, he hasn’t recovered and his velocity is down. I’ve read that his fastball was in the low 80s, I’ve also read that the TV radar gun indicated he never topped 79. He claims it was because he didn’t get enough time to warm up, but the Washington Post says that it was much worse than that:

alarms rang out throughout the organization. Cordero’s warm-up pitches were so shockingly slow that Manager Manny Acta and pitching coach Randy St. Claire visited the mound before he began the inning. His first pitch, a fastball, registered at 76 mph on the scoreboard radar gun. It took him 15 pitches to top 80 mph. He topped out at 82 mph.

If that doesn’t scare you, you are much braver than I am. My point is not that Cordero is finished as a closer. I am not a doctor, and while shoulder problems can be terrible, I know that players sometimes just need time. Whether that means putting him on the DL or getting him more work… I have no idea. Now that he has been hurt this way, his trade value is permanently damaged. Even if he fully recovers, GMs will have this injury in mind if they want to trade for him. I don’t believe that the Nationals front office could have predicted that he would have been hurt like this. But they had an opportunity to get good value for him last season and this past offseason, and didn’t try it.

My point is this: When you are a team that is much more than one or two players away from contending, when you are trying to build an organization with depth and talent, and you have a desirable commodity in a player that you may not even be able to hold onto by the time you can contend, you must trade that player. It is nothing against Cordero, he has been one of my favorite players on the team for a few years. But if he is a very good player who can’t help us win in 2010 himself, he should be dealt for players who can.

The Crowd is Thinning Faster than Your Hair

The first game sold out of course, but the second game in the new stadium was not so crowded. There have been people a little worried by this. It’s a new stadium, and in towns like Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, and Cleveland, the new stadiums (for cellar dwelling teams) all had more fans on day 2 than Washington. In fact, according to Capital Punishment, we set a record for lack of attendance. I am not big on the despair for this problem, for two reasons. First of all, the Reds, Indians, and Pirates have all resided in their respective cities for at least 90 years each. The Nats are working on their 4th. This is a big difference, in that fans are much more interested in seeing the new stadium for a team they have followed for generations than for a new team who also got a new stadium. For alot of fans, the team is the new thing, the stadium is just nice. Another reason I’m not concerned is that cold April weekday games don’t really have a big draw. Games at Yankee Stadium this time of year don’t look too crowded mid-week either (except for this season, when it is the last chance people will have to go to the stadium). Also, playing the Marlins doesn’t help with ticket sales either. People aren’t quite lining up to get a glimpse of Hanley Ramirez. Not yet, at least.

But What Can They Do?

Which brings me to a possible solution for the mid-week doldrums. When I wanted to buy a ticket package for the Nationals this year, I saw the minimum size was 20 games. 20 games! That’s a quarter of the home games. If you wanted Yankees tickets this season, you could have bought 15, 13, 12, 11, and even 8 game packages. The Nats would be smart to do something like this for several reasons. First of all, not many people are going to want to buy a 20 game package to a team that isn’t going to sell out many games this season. So the smaller deals adds incentive to people on the fence to buy games. They think “Oh, I only have to buy 12? Well, if I can’t go to all of them, I only have to try to sell off tickets to 2 games. That shouldn’t be too bad.” I wasn’t about to buy 20 games myself, for fear of my schedule not allowing me to go to more than half. Good luck trying to get my money back by selling the tickets I can’t use for a team that isn’t going to win.

The other nice thing about the small ticket packages is that if more people buy ticket packages, in any size, more people will go to mid-week games. That’s because if someone buys a ticket package, they’re much more likely to go to a mid-week game when a few of those tickets are forced upon them as part of the package. If they are only buying individual tickets, they’ll go when they want, which evidence suggests is the weekend. So with the smaller packages, there would be more people buying the packages, and consequently more people going to mid-week games.

Speaking of Giving Fans Incentive to Attend…

There I was, watching the Royals-Yankees game last week on my beloved MLB Extra Innings package, when I saw a local KC commercial that got me really excited. No, not the one for the Harry S. Truman Presidential Library Museum, North of Route 70. Actually, I’m talking about the commercial for the Royals game on April 12th where they GAVE AWAY JERSEYS to the first 20,000 fans. Look at those suckers!

I’m sure those weren’t the $80 replica jerseys, but still, this is an awesome giveaway. Could you imagine showing up to the stadium and getting a jersey? Well if you lived in Kansas City, it’s a reality. I scoured the Nats promotional giveaway schedule and the closest thing I could find to anything being as cool as a jersey giveaway was… nothing. Bobbleheads are nice, but they aren’t the same at this. T-shirt Tuesdays are too ambiguous for me to know, alhough I am assuming they will be smattered with corporate sponsors on the back. Nothing like a shirt that says EASTERNS MOTORS bigger than ZIMMERMAN. The Nats really don’t have anything that compares to this. Unless they are giving away laser-rocket arms on Roberto Clemente day.

Just got back from the Wednesday night 10-4 debacle loss to the Marlins. I don’t have much to say about the game, Bergmann looked strong until I went for food. Then it was 5-1. I took alot of pictures, and I know I’m a little late on the whole “what does the new stadium look like” thing, but, whatever, I thought it would be nice to post them. The stadium is beautiful inside, it’s laid out nice, the views seem great from everywhere, and the weather was great, so other than the Nats sucking, I really enjoyed it! I’m not going to have alot to write about each picture, just a basic caption below for most. Enjoy.

View of the Capitol from just out of the Metro

The Entrance from just out of the Metro

Centerfield gate

View from centerfield right by the entrance

The Pressbox is so high up

Some pretty good food choices, I still have quite a few foods on my list of things to try that I haven’t gotten to yet. Saw some guys munching on wings in the section over that looked real good. Also reports are that the cheesesteak stand makes a decent sammich.

The food at Ben’s was delicious… but you can get Ben’s Hot Dogs or Half Smokes (and Chili) all over the park at most hot dog stands.

Nice view from the LF concourse. Pretty much the entire concourse has great open views of the field, so you never feel like you are away from the game, even when you are getting food.

As you walk around the concourse, there are a couple of posters with the history of the game in DC. I think it could have been bigger, there is lots of room around that section, but its still a nice touch. The two big players at the bottom of the page are Walter Johnson on the left, and Josh Gibson on the middle-right.

View from the RF concourse.

Oh that scoreboard. It’s like my HDTV if Paul Lo Duca hooked it up with steroids.

There’s a section with batting cages and pitching cages. Looked pretty fun, I may have to play next time.

MLB The Show on Playstation 3 if you want to play. Colm loves it.

People rocking out at Guitar Hero III

The view from the Red Porch is nice, too.

The always exciting LF bullpen.

Future star Andrew Miller doing some fielding drills and soft toss in the OF before the game. Behind him stands someone who is clearly not a professional baseball player, or David Wells.

The upper level center field concourse is huge and open air. It’s real nice, and even has a Five Guys (it’s the little red sign just to the left of the big #10 in the background). The only picture I got of it was the very front, an area with another great view called the Barpen.

After a hard day of creating a new country, Jefferson and Washington are off to race their giant heads around a baseball field. It makes perfect sense to me.

And they’re off!

Jefferson wins!

Another great view, they seem to be everywhere.

A little over 23,000 is a decent but not impressive crowd.

Amezaga lines out to end the top of the 9th. Don’t worry Amezaga, everyone had left by then, so nobody saw it.

Aaaand that’s game. Oh well, maybe next time, eh?

On the way out we stopped by the team store. Nice Mt. Rushmore inside.

Hope you enjoyed the pictures of Nationals Park. I had a great time just soaking in the new stadium, and my only other observation is that the crowd was real quiet, even in the first few innings when the Nats were winning a close one. It may take some time, but a little noise from the fans would be cool.

This past week, the Nationals ran a little experiment. They put Felipe Lopez in LF, and he seemed to play the position alright. As of Monday morning, he started 3 games in LF and moved there in another. He hasn’t hit well so far, but he has drawn a couple of walks which is nice to see. Regardless, I’m not going to criticize this move. With Elijah Dukes and Wily Mo Pena out, there aren’t many other options. If Lopez can play LF, Acta has a much more versatile bench, and his bat is probably better than Willie Harris or Rob Mackowiak. At least if Lopez doesn’t repeat his 2007. But it got me thinking. What would Lopez look like starting in LF? How would he compare to the rest of the league?

I ran a list of the guys who have at least 300 ABs in LF, to see how Lopez stacks up. Also, let’s look at how he stacks up to 2B and SS in the league, with the same 300 AB minimum. In terms of how to compare, I thought the easiest way to compare though was plain old on base plus slugging, OPS. It is a good measure of overall performance, even if its not perfect. Lopez is in interesting case, his career average is a little tricky to use because his first 4 seasons were all as a part time player. He had one very good season, 2005, with power numbers that are probably a little high thanks to playing in Cincinnati, but otherwise a realistic good season for him. 2006 was a middle-of-the-road type season, starting off strong but losing all power once he moved to RFK (while increasing his OBP). 2007 was a disaster. I’m not even comparing that one, because if that is how he’s going to produce, he’s not playing any position. So I’ve compared Lopez in ‘05 and ‘06 to everyone else’s 2007 season.

Well there are a couple of things that stand out here. First is that his good season in 2005 makes him good for any position. He’s an above average LF with those numbers, but he is a great 2B or SS. Only the middle infield superstars are above him at that position, plus one Placido Polanco. That wasn’t so surprising to me, but what was more surprising was the result from his mediocre 2006 campaign. In ‘06 he was something like a replacement level LF hitter but in the middle infield he was ok but below average for a 2B. And as a SS, he’d be considered just about an average producer. Clearly with using OPS as a metric, he can justify his bat much more in the middle infield, whereas in the OF, he is not very useful

But wait, you say, Lopez isn’t a power hitter! So isn’t just OPS a little unfair? He’s a leadoff hitter type, he won’t be driving guys in, he’ll be setting the table, you say. Hey, even Jose Reyes was only ranked 14th on that list, and we all know he is a great offensive player. Well, please stop interrupting, I was getting to that. Perhaps OPS isn’t the best measurement for Lopez. His job is to get on base, as a potential leadoff hitter. And if his job is to get on base, then on base percentage, OBP, would be a better measure of his effectiveness. So where does he rank there?

Ok, so here the pattern remains, but its not as strong. It’s interesting, when you compare him to other guys playing LF, OBP-only makes him look worse in his good year. And as a middle infielder, it makes him looks worse, too. But we do see that even in his average or bad 2006, he stacks up decently with the league in terms of getting on base.

It’s an interesting perspective. It seems that there are plenty of 2B with higher OBP than the 2005 version of Lopez but overall, using OPS, he is better than most. In LF, he ranks miserably low with OPS, but his OBP is not bad. At SS, he is strong no matter what. If he continues to play in LF for the whole season, he will rank as one of the worst OPS guys. Its the difference in power, from a good year to a not so good one, that is the big difference on how he stacks up.

But if he can get that OBP up enough, he will still be a successful offensive force. However, if it remains at levels anything less than what he had in 2005, he seems to be wasting a lineup spot playing in LF, as the Nats could get similar production out of a LF from AAA. Further analysis would probably be needed to confirm that his ability to swipe a few bases doesn’t offset his negatives too much, but I have a strong feeling that what we see here is most of the story.

We’re not so much smarter than them, I guess

On opening night, Manny Acta said that he liked Nick Johnson’s high OBP. Last week, I read that Peter Abraham (via the Pinstriped Bible) noted that Joe Girardi keeps a copy of Baseball Prospectus 2008 by his desk. If he reads it, Shelley Duncan may have some trouble getting playing time. Old school guys think that newfangled sabermetrics don’t really show the whole game. They’re right, they don’t. But what is happening is these stats are so useful that they are becoming part of the game the way batting average and ERA is (which, by the way, are also stats invented by people trying to better show the game through numbers - they were just invented 100 years ago). Whether Joe Morgan likes it or not, the stats have changed the way people look at the game, and now it seems to be more and more pervasive.

MLB.com looks much better

MLB.com I think took a cue from NHL.com, and improved their site dramatically. Videos are higher quality and come through less choppy, although I do miss the old countdown before they play. Beware if you’re checking that site at work. What’s really nice, and where I loved what the NHL did, is they now have a multitude of video highlights from the previous games. It’s called the MLB Gameday Wrap, and you can find it by going to the scoreboard and clicking the link that says wrap. Here is the page from the opener, check it out and enjoy the Zimmerman homer. Anyway, it should be a great place to find video highlights, whether you go in through mlb.com or nationals.com.

More Philly

On Sunday, I was asked by Tom of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff, a Philadelphia Phillies blog, to do a written interview of the Nats prior to the Nats-Phillies series this week. We cover the OF, Ryan Zimmerman, and Teddy Roosevelt, among a few other things. You can find it here http://www.ballssticksstuff.com/2008/03/advancing-the-w.html. Also, as I mentioned before, I was on the Philadelphia Baseball Review this week in their preview. This is a podcast so you get to listen to me stumble over my words, answer questions differently than they were asked, and altogether not say everything I wanted.

And since we’re on the subject of the Phillies, we can talk a little bit about that first game in Philadelphia. The nice thing about playing them is that every time you go through that lineup, Pedro Feliz is there to kill a rally. Once a week he’ll hit a home run, which is nice for that particular stat category. But if those HRs are only relevant, let’s say half the time, how many more games is he gonna lose, than win? That was rhetorical, the answer is “alot.”

Nick Johnson doubled twice on Monday, he appears to be hitting the ball really well so far. I’m not sure how far things like “wanting to prove yourself” or “showing everyone what you can do” really works, but whatever it is, he appears healthy. Alot of people think that .290/.428/.520 in 2006 was probably a career high - but health issue have kept him from playing when he was younger, during his time with the Yankees he was part time, and he only really played full time in ‘05 and ‘06, when he was 27. What if, at 29, we get a repeat performance, because that is what a healthy Nick Johnson hits? To put it in perspective, his VORP of 51 was 5th among all 1Bs in MLB in 2006, behind Pujols, Howard, Berkman, and Morneau. I think another top 5 finish is possible, a top 10 is realistic. Additionally, at this point in the season he is on pace to hit 243 doubles this season. Which would be a record.

Blastings got his first hit as a National today, which was a HR. The more he hits of those the better of course, but not at the cost of getting other hits more often. Not that I’m saying he’s doing that, but I’ll be happy if he bats over .300 in his first full season. The HRs are just whipped cream topping to me. Chico didn’t look good today, but he didn’t look horrible. I was expecting horrible after the spring, and I’m sure we’ll got some of that from him. But right now, so so is fine to start the season. As for the 11 runs they scored, well that’s alot. They managed 11 or more runs just seven times last season, and as bad as they were I was surprised that it was that many. So unfortunately, it’s probably not an indicator of things to come. The way the top of the lineup is hitting together, however, may be.

What’s Old is New

A new blog, which apparently is actually an old blog is up and running. Anyway, it’s called Capital Dugout and it’s at capitoldugout.blogspot.com. He’s reviving it after two years of inactivity, so if you’re an old fan, or just looking for more and more content, like most of us, check it out.

Ok, it’s overdone, and there are certainly more accomplished writers than me who write journals. But I’m sick of writing previews and I figured the best way to communicate what I felt about the game was to keep a journal, inning-by-inning as to my thoughts during the game, in chronological order….

• Pregame
  • I’ve cracked a beer (Red Hook ESB) and I’m set up on the couch ready to go. Opening day is the best day. I should have taken Monday off so I could watch day baseball, too.
  • The new stadium looks great, that scoreboard is HUGE. Also, I’m pretty sure HD was invented with baseball fields in mind.
  • I think the President’s embroidered name is a nice touch on his jacket - George W Bush, the W is the Nat’s cap logo.
  • That brick wall backstop could lead to some silly bounces. Maybe even right back at the catcher
  • Every year the Preseident should throw out the first pitch of the season, in DC, and the Nats should play the first game. It’s America’s pastime, it makes sense and it would be a great tradition.
• Top of the 1st Inning
  • Odalis Perez got the first K at the stadium. It’s history! Go crazy! WRITE IT DOWN!
  • So far so good, 3 up and 3 down, I like it.
• Bottom of the 1st
  • GUZMANIA! First hit in the new stadium goes to Christian Guzman. Think about that. Only Jim Bowden would have predicted that one. WRITE IT DOWN!
  • Hudson threw away a pickoff and Guzman got all the way to third. How often does that actually happen? I have a feeling that Nats are gonna get lucky with the bounces tonight.
  • Nick Johnson’s hits a ball well, but what was great was seeing him run the bases without exploding. Also, first RBI. WRITE IT DOWN! [1-0 Nats]
  • Austin Kearns shocks me by hitting Johnson home. I’m not shocked that Kearns got a hit, I’m shocked about a 2 run 2 out rally. Is this really the Nats? [2-0 Nats]
  • Wow, thanks to ESPN for showing Dmitri Young in a suit… with a crooked tie… inexplicably carrying a metal briefcase. That was the funniest thing I’ve seen today.
• Top of the 2nd
  • McCann hits the ball well and tries to stretch it into a double, and he gets gunned down by Kearns. He played it perfectly, although not on purpose, I think.
• Bottom of the 2nd
  • Dukes hits a deep fly to center, but it’s still not close. FYI, before opening day he had 10 HRs in 184 career ABs. That is enticing.
• Top of the 3rd
  • Odalis Perez just picked someone off? Everything seems to be going right tonight. First one at the new park! WRITE IT DOWN!
• Bottom of the 3rd
  • Yuniel Escobar just made the first nice defensive play in the new stadium! Heyo! WRITE IT DOWN!
• Top of the 4th
  • Chipper just laced a HR over the LCF fence. It is allegedly pretty windy here, so liners may be the best shot for HRs right now, although once it gets all hot and humid outside, I think the ball will carry.
  • First time the ball hits the 3rd base bag and stays fair! WRITE IT DOWN!
• Bottom of the 4th
  • I like seeing Nick Johnson then Austin Kearns batting. Two batters in a row that can really wear down pitchers, that could be the difference between a pitcher going an extra inning or not.
• Top of the 5th
  • Acta’s interview with John Miller and Joe Morgan was interesting. It’s just weird to hear a manager use the term “On Base Percentage” when praising a guy. Made me feel warm and fuzzy inside.
  • Chevy Chase ACura. That unnecessary accent drives me crazy. Also, I live right there, it’s Bethesda, not Chevy Chase.
• Bottom of the 5th
  • Mackowiak pinch hits, which makes me happy because I claimed that he’d be one of the first off the bench. And he was! WRITE IT DOWN!
  • So Perez is out, which is understandable. Remember, he didn’t have a complete spring training so might as well be a little careful. 5 IP, 2 K, 1ER - I’ll take that every time.
• Top of the 6th
  • I don’t mind the little Chipper tribute. People don’t realize just how good he is. And for fantasy baseball, even if he only plays 120 games a year, he’s putting up MVP type numbers when he’s in. Anyway, look at his stats, he’s actually healthy most of the time.
• Bottom of the 6th
  • Hudson’s keeping the ball down, lots of groundball outs. Not fun for us. But man, this stadium looks good.
• Top of the 7th
  • Cool view of the batting cages from those premier suites seats. Anyone want to take me to a game sitting there?
  • When the ball is hit to RF, I have full confidence that Kearns is going to make a good play on it.
• Bottom of the 7th
  • Hey, Joe Morgan, can you remind me again how well Tim Hudson is pitching? Oh, really well? Ok, thanks.
  • Paul Lo Duca hits the ballhard, but I wasn’t fooled into thinking it might carry over the LF fence. Not because I saw anything special, but because it’s Paul Lo Duca.
  • Racheal Ray is trying to sell me hot breakfast from Dunkin’ Donuts, which makes me want to eat it less.
• Top of the 8th
  • Speaking of Dunkin’ Donuts… Ladies and Gentleman, Ray King! First LOOGY of the new stadium! WRITE IT DOWN!
  • When King pitches to righties, I get nervous. I’m cool with him walking the righty.
  • A flyball out to Lastings Milledge is what I think his is first play of the season. There is talk that he reads the ball very poorly off the bat, but he seemed to get a good jump on that one.
  • It’s a shame to see Gilbert still in a suit on March 30. But what a nasty pass by Blatche… Sorry, I flipped channels during the commercial.
  • Zimmerman just made a great play on what turned out to be a foul ball. I love that play. I hear he’s good at fielding.
  • So there’s an MLB 2K8 video game commercial on with Dennis Leary as the voiceover. Does he always sound this angry? He’s like Bobby Knight, he could sing you happy birthday and sound pissed off.
• Bottom of the 8th
  • The Braves pitchers last name is Ohman? Oh, man? That could be good or bad I guess. It’s better than, I don’t know, being a goalie name Lettin’ In.
  • Joe Morgan’s talking about an Ernie Banks statue outside of Wrigley, which is a cool idea. I’d love it if the Nats have a player someday that is so synonymous with the team, and so great of a player, that it makes sense to make a statue for him.
  • I can barely hear it, but they’re playing Sweet Caroline during a break. This must be stopped.
  • Felipe Lopez comes in as a PH to show why he should be starting. He strikes out on 3 straight pitches. Well, he’ll have other chances.
• Top of the 9th
  • Jon Rauch is coming in instead of Chad Cordero. I wonder if it’s cause Cordero isn’t ready to play yet? They say his fastball’s off, a 1 run game in the 9th maybe shouldn’t be where he comes in if that’s the case. I’m ok with playing Chief in the middle innings until he’s healthy. Meanwhile, I think Rauch gets really lucky as Chipper hits the ball hard but right at him
  • Mark Teixeira hits a double about a foot south of clearing the fence. Again, Rauch got lucky and isn’t looking good.
  • 2 outs and McCann is up, I don’t have a problem if they walk him right now with a man on 3rd an 2 outs.
  • It doesn’t matter as Lo Duca muffs it and, I can’t believe it, a run scores on a passed ball. First passed ball in the new stadium! WRITE IT DOWN!
  • Everyone got all antsy with McCann’s popup to LF. Can I give some advice here? If you go to a game, and see a fly ball to the OF, just wait 2 seconds before you decide to loudly gasp, and check out what the outfielder is actually doing to field the ball.
• Bottom of the 9th
  • Wouldn’t this be the perfect vindication for Guzman? If he hit a HR here, Rob Neyer and Bill James would probably have that feeling that Obi Wan had when they blew up the planet. But, too bad, no such luck.
  • Wow, what a way to end the game. Ryan Zimmerman with a game ending HR! A game winning RBI! And then, the first curtain call in the new stadium! WRITE IT ALL DOWN! [3-2 Nats, final]

Well, what a way to ring in the new stadium. I enjoyed the replay of Zimmerman’s homer, where they show him jogging to first and clearly mouthing the words “Get the F— outta here!” as he’s watching the ball sail. I am thrilled with the way they played today, and Zimmerman’s home run will be remembered, but Odalis Perez pitched a great game and deserves some credit. Hopefully this is a sign of things to come with him. In the meantime, I will be looking forward to going to my first Nats game next week.

A couple of things to end this last week before real games start. First of all, you may have noticed a new logo on the top. That is mostly because I have been asked, along with many other Nats bloggers, if I wanted to be mentioned on MASN’s pregame show, Nats Extra. The idea is that each day they will mention a blog or two, and what we wrote about. I think it is pretty cool that the “big media” or whatever you want to call it is acknowledging those of us who are just passionate fans writing about them for fun, and realize that we may have something to contribute. So thanks, MASN, for that. Anyway, they wanted the website’s logo to put up on TV when they talk about TNR, and I figured the old logo, with a bunch of pictures I stole from various other websites, needed to be trashed. Thanks to my computer geek friend Adrian, who does all kinds of design for a living, for helping me make my idea look much better than what I originally had.

Philly Talk

I was asked to give a preview of the Nats for a Phillies podcast. Being interviewed was definitely fun although a little weird. I answered questions accurately and to the best of my ability, and when he asked me to come up with a # of wins for the Nats this year I was kinda put on the spot. I came up with 76 or 77, which although is doable, may be a bit high. I did caveat that by saying if they could find a constant rotation. I’ll stand by my prediction if that condition is met. We’ll get Pat from Philadelphia Baseball Review to give us some input when we have some Phillies questions. In the meantime, check out my interview at the Philadelphia Baseball Review. I’m not sure if my audio is up yet, as soon as it is I’ll post a link, in the meantime you can check out site, it looks at all area teams, not just the Philies.  Addendum: The audio is up and here is the link: http://philadelphiabaseballreview.blogspot.com/2008/03/phillies-vs-nationals-gameday-331.html

Stadium Beer

I felt it was worth mentioning, despite my aversion to regurgitating other people’s stories, that the Nats WILL indeed be serving beer at their ballpark. Actually, the DC Sports Bog has a list of what the options are going to be, and I think its important for everyone to know. Some thoughts:

1. If they are looking for a good local brew, Dogfish Head Ale has some great stuff
2. I am looking forward to trying the locally brewed Hook and Ladder, as well as Leinenkugel Home Run Ale (if it’s anything like Brooklyn lager’s Pennant Ale ‘55, another baseball-themed beer, it will be my go-to drink at the stadium).
3. If you are paying $6.50 for a 12 oz. bottle of Corona, you… have a very different palette than me.
4. I am excited to see what Asian beers they have. No chance they have San Miguel (from the Philippines and one of my favs) but good chance I can get the delicious and originally German-made Tsingtao, a staple of my trip to China and most of my trips to Chinese restaurants.
5. I agree with Dan, more local brews would be fun, although I’m perfectly happy with the close to 30 brands that he has listed.

Finding the Nats

Just a reminder, if you’re looking to find the Nats, there are several places to get them. If you’re local, you can watch all the games on MASN with a handful on MY20, and MASN will be showing 40 games in HD on the MOJO network. The story’s all here. If you are local, you won’t be able to catch them on MLB.TV, but if you travel alot with a laptop, I’ve heard great things about it. Also, if you’re into the radio, you can catch every single MLB game, without blackout restrictions, on XM Radio. The nice thing about that is I believe you can login to their website and listen over your computer (hello, afternoon games at work). As for regular radio, or terrestrial radio as they say now, they’ll be on 107.7 FM and 1500 AM locally. Happy watching/listening.

With Opening Day quickly approaching I am getting myself pumped up for the season. People that live on the West Coast or in Florida always tell me I’m crazy to suffer through the winters here (and DC isn’t even bad compared to New York and New England). But it’s like we punish ourselves with cold dreadful winters just because it makes us appreciate Spring so much more. I’m convinced that’s why people from Boston to Baltimore, and thankfully now DC, seem to live and die by their baseball teams, while everywhere else it’s just another sport. But that is a topic for another day. Today, we look around everywhere other than the NL East, which I wrote about last week. This post will be pretty long, but if you just want to see my final predictions you can scroll down to the picture of Conan telling the future at the bottom.

The rest of the NL

I keep hearing that everyone likes the Cubs this season, and with such a history of dominance, why not? Seriously, the top of their rotation is just like Gaylord Focker’s portfolio - strong… to quite strong. Their lineup is going to do well, too, espcially that OF of Soriano, Pie and Fukudome. I think people will be surprised by the abilities of catcher Geovany Soto, and they’ve still got great bats at their corner infield positions.

Last year, the Brewers were the fashionable pick to make the playoffs. They started on track, but faded at the end and now I hear nothing about them. Lack of confidence in Ben Sheets’ ability to pitch all year may have something to do with it. But their bats are great - Hardy, Hart, and Cameron all could have 25+ HRs, Fielder and Braun should be higher than that. The more Sheets pitches the better, but Suppan, Gallardo, and Villanueva should be able to do a pretty decent job on their own. And the loss of Cordero will hurt, but not decimate their bullpen, and I think Gagne will recover from last year’s debacle.

The Reds, on the other hand, are a fashionable pick this year, but nobody’s ever accused me of being fashionable. I do like Arroyo and Harang, but I’m not sure Cueto and Bailey are ready to shoulder the burden that’s being put on them. Patterson doesn’t give me confidence in CF, although if Griffey stays healthy those corner OFs are tough to beat. I’m not sure Freel is going to make the whole season with this team, and for everyone who think Votto will come out and demolish ML pitchers, beware the lessons of guys like Jeremy Hermida and Conor Jackson. He may be great, but I’m not sure if he’s ready to be great in 2008, for 5 or 6 months. Cordero helps but doesn’t fix a shaky pen. I’ll probably wait a year or two to jump on the bandwagon here, after they’re no longer fashionable.

The Astros made the kind of moves this offseason that I just didn’t understand. They can hit some home runs with Berkman, Hunter Pence, Carlos Lee and Miguel Tejada. But acquiring someone like Kaz Matsui who had a deplorable .240/.304/.333 split away from Coors field last year was just strange. What they need is pitching, and besides Roy Oswalt they have… Wandy Rodriguez? Shawn Chacon? Woody Williams? Slowpitch McWalkerstein?

Last year was bad for the Cardinals, and they shouldn’t be much better. Pujols would have to completely carry this team offensively, there aren’t many hitters on this team, and one of them used to be a pitcher. At least Rick Ankiel should be a great story. My friend Brian thinks that if they Mulder and Carpenter back in July, and they’re still hanging around, they have a shot. It may be true, but I don’t think they’ll be hanging around, and I don’t think both will be back and pitching by then.

I picked the Pirates to be my most improved team last season, and they improved by 1 game, so why not try again this year? LaRoche is a 2nd half hitter, but his first was ridiculously bad last year, and Jason Bay isn’t that bad either. The rest of their lineup still isn’t very good, but their pitching staff looks to be a strong young core, with Ian Snell, Gorzelanny, and Maholm all with promising futures. Matt Morris could still provide something for this team, and remember Zack Duke was once a huge sleeper prospect.

The Rockies were fortunate enough to make it to the World Series last season, and I don’t want to take away from the fact that they played the last month of the regular season like it was the playoffs. But just like the Mets will have trouble losing that many in a row at the end, Colorado may find themselves in a similar situation in Sept ‘08 than they were in Sept ‘07, and will have to win most of their remaining games. I actually like their pitching staff, but it’s good not great, and I think Tulowitzki, Taveras and Helton all played a bit above their heads last year. Not to say that any of them will have bad seasons, but 2007 could be better than 2008. They’ll be in the hunt for the NL West title, but I’m not sure if they can pull it off again.

The Dodgers look to be a much improved team this season, with some serious young talent. Andre Ethier, James Loney and Matt Kemp are all promising talents. Their starting pitching is good, although Billingsley could be more than that. The addition of Andruw Jones will probably help as well, but I fear that Torre will do the one thing he was maligned for (rather than mismanaging his bullpen at times) which is sticking too long with his veterans. If Torre can give his young guys the playing time they already deserve, they could contend for the title.

After just missing the playoffs last season, the Padres still still a team to consider at the top of the NL. Their pitching staff, anchored by Peavy, is impressive, as is their bullpen. The lineup has never been great, but a full season of Kouzmanoff, another year under Adrian Gonzalez’s belt, and the possible emergence of Chase Headley in their virtually empty outfield should help them contend.

The Giants are a team that will contend for the worst record in the majors next summer. Cain, Lincecum, and Zito should all be effective pitchers, but they don’t have much of a bullpen and their lineup is.. well… their best hitters are an out-of-shape Aaron Rowand, Randy Winn, Benji Molina, and Ray Durham. Off the top of my head, that may be their only hitters. It’s not gonna be pretty, but at least fans can watch Lincecum’s crazy delivery.

Another contender is NL West 2007 champs, the Diamondbacks, who acquired the second-best pitcher on the market this offseason, Dan Haren. That combo up top will put them in the hunt, and their lineup should only get better, with players like Chris Young, Conor Jackson, and Stephen Drew all hopefully progressing.

And the AL Teams

The Red Sox look the team to beat and it makes sense. There are some bad things about this team: Veritek is getting older and hasn’t hit like he used to, Beckett was incredible last season, which may be hard to repeat, and now he’s starting the season on the DL with back problems, which have been known to never really go away during a season. Also, Schilling is out until at least the All Star break (I’m guessing longer), Manny had a bad season last year (for him) so who knows if he can recover to old form, Wakefield hasn’t been great recently, they released Mirabelli so who’s gonna catch the knuckler anyway?, and Mike Lowell had a career year last year so he probably will regress. They still have a hole at SS and I think their setup man Okajima will be much more hittable this year. All that seems like serious issues, but this team will still be in great shape because of the emergence of Jacoby Ellsbury, Dustin Pedroia, Clay Buchholz and John Lester, plus the fact that Manny had a bad season last year so if he recovers that’ll make up for less hitting from others.

The Yankees are in an interesting situation, and should be one of the more fun teams to watch this year. The trio of Hughes, Kennedy and Chamberlain all need to be effective to make this team have a shot. Pettitte and Wang are still a top duo, and alot will also depend on what they can get out of Moose and the guys who may end up having to fill in 15 or so starts - Igawa, Karstens, even Pavano. Their lineup is still formidable, especially if Shelley Duncan keeps up what he’s been doing, and they get anything out of Giambi or Ensberg. Damon is still effective despite being much maligned last year, he hit .296/.364/.450 in the second half and played great D in LF. If he keeps that up he will be great leading off in front of Jeter, although I’d like to see either ARod hitting 3rd, or Cano in that spot in front of ARod at 4th. I expect Posada to hit well, but not as well as last season - that will likely be offset by a better Abreu and an improved Melky, who turns 23 this year. The bullpen is better, too, even without counting Joba the Heat. But it all comes back to whether the young pitchers can hold it togther. By September, you could see 4 of the 5 spots in the rotation held down by guys under 25 with the mystery man being Humberto Sanchez.

The Blue Jays have cobbled together a good team. Always able to score runs, last season they pitched real well and couldn’t hit at all. They’ve looked to correct it this year adding Rod Barajas, Scott Rolen and David Eckstein. Vernon Wells will most likely hit better than last year, but it still may not be enough to contend for first. Second place, however, is well within their reach.

Everyone seems to love the Rays this year, (no more Devil in their name), and they are looking better. Carlos Pena, Upton, Iwamora, Crawford and Longoria can all hit. Bartlett, and Navarro can’t. Crawford’s lack of improvement over the last few seasons is a mystery, but he’ll only be 26 this year so he may yet get better. Their young pitching staff is what everyone loves, and James Shields was great. Kazmir has yet to show he isn’t fragile. Garza, Sonnanstine, and Jackson are all good pitchers, but are inconsistent and still haven’t posted pretty ERAs.

Orioles fans should just keep their eyes on the OF and keep saying to themselves “Jones, Markakis and Scott” over and over. Because those guys are going to keep fans from going completely insane. Guthrie looks good, we have seen Daniel Cabrera and we know what we’re getting from him. I’m betting the O’s finish the season with the worst record in baseball, but thankfully they’ve FINALLY acknowledged that adding one Jay Payton or Aubrey Huff isn’t gonna put them into contention. It was time to rebuild 10 years ago, they’re just getting around to it now.

The White Sox are bringing back some of their swagger from their championship season, or at least Ozzie Guillen is talking like they are. There is a glut of OFers yet its unclear where everyone will play, and what’s gonna happen with CF. Their pitching staff is strong but not spectacular, and I’m unconvinced they can top their chief division rivals.

The Tigers made some big acquisitions in the offseason, with Miguel Cabrera being the biggest. Get it? $153 million buys alot of cheeseburgers. They can hit, but I worry that Pudge is fading fast, Jacques Jones is more of a 4th OF now, and while Carlos Guillen can hit, he goes from being one of the best hitting SS in the league to at best a middle-tier 1B. The bats should be enough to make their pitching staff look good, and it doesn’t need too much help. Although I worry that a change of scenery isn’t enough to save Dontrelle.

The Indians are the class of the central and should continue to do well. They need Hafner back to old form in order to hit well enough, but they have strong starting pitching, especially at the top. Their bullpen still has some issues, and the sooner they move Betancourt to closer over Borowski the better, although the addition of Kobayashi (pitcher, not hot dog eating champ) should help to bolster it.

The Twins are looking more and more like a rebuilding team, and the trade they made for Santana may eventually pay off, although it wasn’t the best or second best offer on the table. Their great bullpen may see lots of action, after Liriano, who is coming off injury, I am not sure I have much faith in the rest. Morneau and Mauer are still there, and now Delmon Young is too, but other than Kubel, the other bats don’t have much potential.

The Royals are a perpetual rebuilding team but may get a chance to finish out of last place if Minnesota really struggles. Gordon and Teahan will improve this year, but other than that… it should be good to see 2006 top pick Luke Hochevar up and pitching at some point this year.

The Rangers may surprise people by putting up some runs. Their infielders can hit, and additions of Josh Hamilton and Milton Bradley could add alot of offense. But their Ace is Kevin Millwood, and other than Vincente Padilla, the rest of the staff makes Millwood look like an ace in comparison.

Billy Beane is a great GM, and he’s turned coal into diamonds in Oakland, or whatever the phrase is. But the A’s are gonna need more than a few diamonds this season to be anything better than very bad. They have a few guys who can hit some HRs, but not enough, and their best pitcher is Joe Blanton. Well, it’s Rich Harden if he could ever pitch, but since he can’t, it’s Blanton. At least Huston Street’s still awesome.

The Mariners, on the other hand, have some names to take note of, especially the names Felix Hernandez and Erik Bedard. That’s quite a 1-2 punch, and Washburn and Silva fill out the back end, although I think Miguel Batista will be worse this year. Their lineup has some ok spots, but Sexson needs to hit better than .205 to help out a team that had Jose Vidro as their DH, and a hasn’t hit in years Wilkerson playing the OF. If Felix and Bedard makes 60 starts between the two of them, they have a chance of winning the West, but I just don’t think they’ve improved enough.

The Angels are the team that like to show off by overpaying for players now. Gary Matthews and Torii Hunter are going to take up something like 25% of this teams payroll. In 2008 that seems like alot, in 2010 it could be crippling. But for now, I like the lineup, the infield can hit, the OF can hit, and Vlad is still, for now, a premier RF. The important thing for this team’s chances is if Garland, Jered Weaver, Ervin Santana, and Joe Saunders can hold down the fort until Lackey and Escobar return in May. Look for Moseley and Adenhart to play an important role as well.

Bold Predictions

AL East - Red Sox
AL Central -Indians
AL West - Angels
AL WC- Yankees
ALCS -Indians vs. Yankees
AL Champs - Indians
NL East - Mets
NL Central - Cubs
NL West - Diamondbacks
NL WC - Brewers
NLCS - Cubs vs. Diamondbacks
NL Champs - Cubs
WS - Cubs
AL MVP - Derek Jeter
NL MVP - Jose Reyes
AL Cy Young - Felix Hernandez
NL Cy Young - Ben Sheets
AL RoY - Clay Buchholz
NL RoY - Geovany Soto

Wait, did I just pick the Cubs to win the World Series? If you’re not convinced, well I haven’t convinced myself of it. But this is all for fun anyway, right? There you have it, can’t wait until everyone reminds me of how wrong I am come October…

I’m not much for news on this site, I usually try to do weekly analysis of a topic. But John Patterson was cut by the Nats today, and that I had to mention. He had a pretty bad spring, ending with a 7.00 ERA. What’s surprising is that he had 7 Ks and 0 BBs. From a statistical standpoint, it looks like he has something to build on. But stats don’t tell the whole story. My guess is that his formerly wicked fastball is no longer moving the way it was (the Washington Post confirmed my hunch on Friday when they said “his fastball has been clocked consistently in the 83-86 mph range, down from the low 90s”). His curve looked decent enough when I watched him pitched the other day, but if he doesn’t ever get the velocity he had before, he’ll never be that great pitcher.

It’s not as if Odalis Perez has emerged yet as a viable starter*, although Redding has looked good this summer. Maybe the front office realized that Patterson was still a longshot, and didn’t want to spend every 5 days with their fingers crossed hoping for something special and never getting it. It’s tough on the psyche, and as others have pointed out - it’s easier to get down on Patterson for being hurt than Hill because we expected more from Patterson while Hill was a surprise. Either way, the false hope won’t be missed, even if the player will be a bit.

*On Thursday afternoon when this was posted he hadn’t - then on Thursday night he went 6 IP, 2 ER, 6 K, 0 BB. And apparently the Nationals have said he is definitely starting out in the rotation.

Since we’ve had the time to fully dissect the Nationals and what their team will look like, it’s probably not a bad idea to take a look around them. The NL East should once again prove to be a tough division with some high quality teams, but thanks to the biggest trade of the offseason there is a clear frontrunner. So let’s take a look at the four non-DC teams and where they stack up.

Atlanta Braves

Two years in a row without a postseason berth, is it possible for the Braves to go three? Well, their bats are surprisingly potent when you look at this lineup. Chipper Jones, Brian McCann, Jeff Francouer, and, oh yeah, Mark Teixiera all provide serious power to a team that isn’t really synonymous with HRs. Matt Diaz can rake too, and the question will be whether middle infield tablesetters Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar can get on so the other guys can drive them in. Also there’s the perennial question, can Chipper stay healthy enough to keep this team hitting all year long? Even with that, the real question about this team is about the pitching staff. What can the 42-year-old Glavine, the 40-year-old Smoltz, and the 36-year-old-hasn’t-pitched-since-2005 Mike Hampton do collectively? Tim Hudson should continue to be very good, other than the blip that was 2006, he’s been that or better every year since 2000. One other potential issue for this team is their bullpen, Rafael Soriano is their closer and their best reliever, and while I’m not big on saves as a stat, he only has 13 in 187 appearances.

Florida Marlins

I have a special place in my heart for the team that allowed the Nats to finish out of last place for the first time last season. This is a team that may have a strong future - Hanley Ramirez is a superstar but as long as he’s playing SS and making those errors he’s much more valuable as a fantasy player than as a real player. The Marlins should take a clue from the Brewers and their moving of Ryan Braun and put Ramirez anywhere but SS. Why haven’t they? Because they just acquired another future star, Cameron Maybin, to play CF for them. Jeremy Hermida at RF is a guy with big potential who started living up to the hype at the end of last year. They got Luis Gonzalez to split time with Josh Willingham in LF, and Mike Jacobs may yet turn into a 1B with enough power to warrant playing every day. Their lineup, other than Gonzalez, can hit but are very young, and probably can’t produce enough to make up for their pitching staff. The pitching staff while showing some promise, is probably worse than the Nats. Young stars Anibel Sanchez (no-hitter) and Josh Johnson are hurt until at least early summer, and while they acquired a potential stud in Andrew Miller from the Tigers, he has yet to show any consistency and at 23 may not be ready to carry a team. Their bullpen is pretty good, but closer Kevin Gregg walked too many people last year, he needs to bring those down if he wants to be the anchor.

NY Mets

The Mets, in case you forgot, didn’t even make the postseason last year. Thanks to a monumental collapse at the end of 2007, they missed the playoffs by 1 game. Don’t let anyone ever tell you that one game doesn’t matter in this league. Last year’s Mets team was evidence of the folly of thinking that playing one guy over another doesn’t make a difference. Mets fans may want to blame Tom Glavine due to his last start, but Glavine pitched adequate albeit not great all year. Much worse were Jose Valentin’s 18 RC (according to Baseball Reference) in 188 PAs (that’s 1 less RC than Jesus Flores and 1 more than Robert Fick, for comparison) and a number of other pitchers or position players. Anyway, that was all last year. This year they have a little thing called Johan Santfreakintana. Also Pedro is going to pitch alot more innings this year. So they are getting two great pitchers over last years squad that had to blow a 7 game lead with 17 games left in order to not win their division. They will outhit most teams as well - Reyes, Wright, and Beltran are all near the top of their position lists. Ryan Church should provide some offense for this team, as he did inconstantly for the Nats last year. Brian Schneider, who also came over, will provide little offense, but Ramon Castro can hit, so who knows how much each will play. Their bullpen is pretty good, too, and Billy Wagner is still an elite closer. About the only questions this team has outside of the catching situation, is age and durability. Between Moises Alou in LF and Carlos Delgado at 1B, they have 2 positions which should be producing lots of runs that instead may see lots of time on the DL. Just because you have a better hitting SS than everyone doesn’t mean you can punt 1B - if they can’t find solutions or health there, they will be giving up their advantages of having great hitters at CF and SS. Regardless, even if their hitting is only top 10 in the league, having Johan, Pedro, John Maine and Oliver Perez (even if the latter regress a bit, they are still above average #3 & 4 pitchers) will ensure they won’t have problems in this division.

Philadelphia Phillies

NL MVP shortstop Jimmy Rollins and his hit-happy Phillies will likely lead the NL in runs scored for the third year in a row, and only in part because they play in a minature version of a baseball stadium. They still have the right side of the infield to complement the Mets left side, with Ryan Howard hitting close to 50 HRs and Chase Utley being the best 2B in baseball. Besides their solid infield, they have a solid CF in Shane Victorino, a strong RF platoon of Geoff Jenkins, who can still hit righties well, and Jayson Werth, who spells his name funny and demolishes lefties. They also have an interesting sabermetric dichotomy at 3B and LF. Pat Burrell in LF looks like only a decent power hitter to those who pay attention to old school stats like batting average, but if you look at how often he gets on base, you realize he’s a really valuable player. On the other end of the spectrum is new 3B Pedro Feliz, acquired from the Giants, apparently to not get on base. His career average of .252 may not be nauseating, but his career OBP is .288 is. At least he’s got some range. It will also be interesting for me to see what kind of time former Nat Chris Snelling gets, but more interesting for most will be whether Carlos Ruiz can handle full time catching duties. In terms of pitching, the Phillies have a solid staff, with strikeout pitcher Brett Myers returning to the starting rotation and my fantasy team. Cole Hamels will get to build on an exceptional sophomore season, he now has 322 Ks in 315 2/3 career IP, and he also doesn’t throw a changeup or a curve; he simply throws his fastball and alters spacetime accordingly (#286). Kyle Kendrick also pitched well last year, his rookie year, and Adam Eaton should show improvement from his 2007 nightmare. It’s yet to be seen what septuagenarian Jamie Moyer has left in the tank (actually he’s only 45). Closer Brad Lidge should be healthy enough to pitch all but the first few weeks of the season, but relying on a guy who forgot how to pitch for an entire season 2 years ago is a little scary. The rest of the bullpen is decent enough, if not spectacular, with the likes of JC Romero, Tom Gordon, and Ryan Madson.

So the final standings will look like…

1. Mets
2. Phillies
3. Braves
4. Nationals
5. Marlins

Boring that there is no change from the 2007 finish, yes. But it’s closer than you may think, I actually believe the Braves will be a much better team this year and could easily contend for second place, and I wouldn’t be surprised in the least to see them end up there. I envision a tight wild card race this year with the Phillies and the Braves both in it until the end, along with some other teams that look strong in the Central and the West. I can’t see the Mets blowing this one,the addition of Johan makes them too good. Last year I predicted the top of the division correctly but I underestimated our own Was